Europa Conference League · resolved market
VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff39c5dbb0c2e092bf921f3ea2c6a62aa2808abfa0764be0b15f838d27939c07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,897 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1ae…528ebacked Over | 11c | 3,881$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Over | 52c | 2,711$1,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,421.82 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 1,949$1,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.47 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 40c | 1,581$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.18 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbb…c561backed Under | 50c | 1,340$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 12c | 1,250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b7…8c64backed Over | 11c | 1,088$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…96a5backed Over | 50c | 890.35$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over | 14c | 730.9$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 78 | 29.5%23 W · 55 L | -11.2wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0391…ef9bbacked Over | 16c | 494.63$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 15c | 491$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.65 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Under | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…2c06backed Over | 12c | 450$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 46c | 444.89$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.12 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 152 | 24.3%37 W · 115 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 21c | 399.31$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 13c | 307.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 17c | 299.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20dc…f74cbacked Over | 46c | 219.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Under | 67c | 215.2$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.9 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…e36bbacked Over | 14c | 199.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8b…2c90backed Over | 11c | 196$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 12c | 183.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0866…a1d5backed Over | 52c | 182.69$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 45c | 180.84$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.88 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23ea…1c3fbacked Over | 55c | 149.78$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.38 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Over | 50c | 149$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.42 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 52c | 125$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee6…1678backed Over | 52c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 49cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Under | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270c…f377backed Under | 76c | 114.09$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 50c | 110.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 54c | 102.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.03 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 77c | 101.9$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4642…6abbbacked Over | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Over | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc37…fdf4backed Under | 80c | 99.48$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 43c | 90.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Under | 62c | 89.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b3…52debacked Under | 68c | 79.83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Over | 33c | 68.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked Over | 32c | 47.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 52c | 42.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 147 | 67.3%99 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 48c | 41.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 48c | 39.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Under | 50c | 38.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed Over | 59c | 37.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Over | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -82%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x433d…a85abacked Over | 39c | 34.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…08a6backed Over | 31c | 33.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…74ffbacked Under | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc92…6564backed Under | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 55c | 28.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x095e…abc5backed Over | 53c | 28.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 45c | 27.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…2a20backed Over | 46c | 26.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -9.3wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 55c | 22.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33cd…bb7bbacked Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: FC Porto (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)FC Porto won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)FC Porto won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Porto: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Porto: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Porto: O/U 2.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Porto: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.