Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on November 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x727a4bac741dc0211a4be1af59282ee055ba1119e9019f4940b35ffebeda966e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 7c | 2,551$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.87 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d82…04dbbacked Yes | 17c | 2,181$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.02 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 16c | 1,764$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.13 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed No | 73c | 1,500$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 1,482$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 2c | 1,433$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 7c | 1,331$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.46 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 7c | 999.15$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.84 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 16c | 645.44$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.62 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eec…be17backed Yes | 34c | 557.55$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed Yes | 25c | 549.98$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.49 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 4c | 499.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 19c | 300.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…7f33backed Yes | 5c | 299.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 34c | 299.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…fc73backed Yes | 8c | 287.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 28c | 263$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.94 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 16c | 249.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 16c | 248.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 71c | 223.61$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba6…01c8backed Yes | 41c | 205.6$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 201.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 201$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…a437backed Yes | 7c | 199.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed Yes | 14c | 189.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 182.65$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf30…6a42backed No | 72c | 173.01$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 17c | 168.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…446dbacked Yes | 28c | 155$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 12c | 139.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb041…23a7backed No | 76c | 130.78$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 22c | 125.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 30c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed Yes | 42c | 113.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…dacbbacked Yes | 37c | 103$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 30c | 100.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 34c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5222…d2f6backed Yes | 22c | 89.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 75.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…217fbacked Yes | 19c | 67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 37c | 63.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…6a38backed Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x869b…7ab2backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe428…7a88backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…4e46backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6c…a93cbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…9949backed Yes | 24c | 46.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed Yes | 27c | 43.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…148dbacked Yes | 38c | 42.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8acd…664abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…f95abacked Yes | 30c | 39.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 69c | 29.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f81…86fbbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on November 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 41°F or below on November 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or higher on November 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on November 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on November 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on November 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.