Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf54fea827b2dbf88654697c91c84f4ba6a401dfbfe854e04f57df78048a1c73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 8c | 1,577$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.57 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 6c | 1,184$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 12c | 1,010$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.9 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 28c | 977.49$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.1 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 9c | 958.63$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.11 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed No | 8c | 840.96$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.55 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 8c | 818.69$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.11 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 23c | 814.98$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.44 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed No | 47c | 747.91$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.38 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 19c | 614.33$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.63 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95a1…0fd7backed Yes | 75c | 470.28$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.23 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed No | 8c | 435.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…f85ebacked No | 16c | 398.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 45c | 398.32$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.58 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 69c | 361$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.99 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 62c | 358.66$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf30…6a42backed Yes | 65c | 356.15$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.96 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…9655backed Yes | 56c | 345.43$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.99 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…e972backed Yes | 77c | 338.42$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…e004backed Yes | 78c | 324.75$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 51c | 270.14$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.56 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 34c | 216.55$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.58 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a6…8924backed No | 16c | 155.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes | 49c | 151.87$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.44 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 60c | 150.04$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.58 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…4b73backed Yes | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 27c | 132$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 55c | 129.11$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae3c…ee83backed Yes | 66c | 120.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 51c | 110$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2336…9e65backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8baf…cd3ebacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6549backed Yes | 46c | 97.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8b…b15ebacked Yes | 77c | 97.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 67c | 97.01$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…9bd7backed No | 13c | 88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…87adbacked Yes | 56c | 87.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7587…a61abacked Yes | 69c | 67.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.36per pick | 65cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…6a38backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 35c | 57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 55.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 37c | 49.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…cd68backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 34c | 44.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c52…e75fbacked No | 45c | 44.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f81…86fbbacked Yes | 52c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 44c | 42.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…b1cfbacked Yes | 56c | 42.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…0b71backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 46c | 40.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 59c | 39.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab0…8963backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…536cbacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 46c | 31.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b9…6521backed Yes | 68c | 31.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 47c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6c…a93cbacked Yes | 49c | 30.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 49c | 30.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd86f…faa0backed No | 46c | 30.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…148dbacked Yes | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 61c | 25.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a98…d85abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 68c | 16.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 41°F or below on November 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or higher on November 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on November 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on November 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on November 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on November 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.