MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72dd1ad8175ead3e78e6869dfe1a9d4d33c1b6d0741d99cb19e8812b4830625b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof Milwaukee Brewers, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed New York Mets | 60c | 4,476$2,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,790.42 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 4,105$2,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,776.75 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a47…0c54backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 3,750$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 66c | 946.1$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.58 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed New York Mets | 40c | 909.33$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 57c | 648.84$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.9 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets | 77c | 542.85$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.17 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 533.45$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.38 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 52c | 474.3$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.31 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Mets | 28c | 459.33$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.56 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 61c | 451.62$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.08 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets | 51c | 311.06$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.11 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 7c | 308$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets | 62c | 307.59$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.11 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…989fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 302.8$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.09 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Mets | 38c | 282.42$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.1 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d06…755bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 271.99$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.9 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…c52bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed New York Mets | 36c | 232.68$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.79 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed New York Mets | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2181…b6b3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 195.21$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed New York Mets | 61c | 180.34$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.33 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed New York Mets | 61c | 165$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Milwaukee Brewers | 52c | 147.44$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.36 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 124.75$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed New York Mets | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked New York Mets | 33c | 107.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.07 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Milwaukee Brewers | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 96.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 71c | 83.66$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.18 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 79.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed New York Mets | 61c | 73.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed New York Mets | 28c | 62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 59.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 53.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0882…dceabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 45.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 42.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed New York Mets | 26c | 41.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed New York Mets | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 39.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed New York Mets | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked New York Mets | 61c | 30.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Milwaukee Brewers | 51c | 27.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | -11.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed New York Mets | 60c | 17.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.