MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0b5f86abac03ff0c26805e1f3f93f55f6f5df67dca35624a0e5bee8ad9a79db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 19,774$10,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,507.27 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 11,714$4,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,869.98 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 9,770$4,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,771.17 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a0…b16bbacked Under | 39c | 5,157$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,157 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 4,576$1,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,953.37 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 57c | 3,371$1,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,446.89 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 57c | 1,631$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.38 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 52c | 1,195$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.88 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 58c | 363.23$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.12 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 22c | 328.57$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 48c | 328.2$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.12 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 42c | 239.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.06 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 57c | 231.07$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.31 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 43c | 226.28$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 43c | 222.02$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.09 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefd3…bed8backed Over | 43c | 216.16$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.95 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 35c | 208$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…2398backed Over | 41c | 206$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.46 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 48c | 202.25$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.08 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 57c | 192.36$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.18 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 43c | 186.62$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.32 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 57c | 179.96$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.78 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 57c | 175.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.64 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Over | 41c | 174$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 32c | 170.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 42c | 168$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 43c | 167.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 41c | 163$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 60c | 157.6$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.11 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 65c | 151$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 52c | 101.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Over | 55c | 101.23$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.79 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Over | 60c | 99.54$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 52c | 98.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…d653backed Over | 43c | 94.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec8…4bedbacked Over | 43c | 94.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14fc…d8f4backed Over | 43c | 94.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under | 52c | 86.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 52c | 82.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 52c | 81.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 42c | 79.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 42c | 79.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 58c | 77.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 42c | 73.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Over | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Under | 59c | 59.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 47c | 54.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 63c | 52.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x202b…bd32backed Under | 60c | 50.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33d2…9ac2backed Over | 60c | 50.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x257b…2896backed Under | 60c | 48.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 55c | 42.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 43c | 41.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 42c | 41.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c31…5380backed Under | 59c | 41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 35c | 38.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed Over | 43c | 34.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…16c9backed Under | 58c | 33.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 43c | 31.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 57c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 41c | 25.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Over | 42c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.