MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Minnesota Twins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x736421b7c4edc712ba5e1b4b282578523372bbf4ff259c6c0a6fea58d675a3b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof New York Mets, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed New York Mets | 47c | 20,000$9,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,400 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Minnesota Twins | 53c | 12,740$6,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,000.84 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Minnesota Twins | 53c | 6,227$3,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,934.8 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed New York Mets | 48c | 4,233$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050.24 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Minnesota Twins | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Minnesota Twins | 52c | 3,065$1,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,471.54 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…0ed4backed New York Mets | 49c | 2,755$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Minnesota Twins | 52c | 2,683$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.72 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8377…4198backed Minnesota Twins | 56c | 2,359$1,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.97 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed New York Mets | 49c | 2,048$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.93 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed New York Mets | 47c | 1,912$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.64 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -9.8wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Minnesota Twins | 54c | 1,624$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.08 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 1,419$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.58 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked New York Mets | 48c | 1,038$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed New York Mets | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked New York Mets | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Minnesota Twins | 52c | 700$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Minnesota Twins | 51c | 607.63$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.74 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Minnesota Twins | 51c | 438$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Minnesota Twins | 52c | 434.93$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.97 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed New York Mets | 45c | 400$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f7…9385backed New York Mets | 47c | 368.09$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Minnesota Twins | 52c | 343.99$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.18 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed New York Mets | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked New York Mets | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Minnesota Twins | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Minnesota Twins | 54c | 105$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed New York Mets | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0549…c052backed Minnesota Twins | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…7defbacked New York Mets | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked New York Mets | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed New York Mets | 48c | 81.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 60.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f10…cbc0backed New York Mets | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Minnesota Twins | 53c | 48.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked New York Mets | 49c | 45.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e2…721bbacked Minnesota Twins | 51c | 43.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked New York Mets | 49c | 42.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c2…6f60backed New York Mets | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed New York Mets | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed New York Mets | 37c | 36.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Minnesota Twins | 72c | 28.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.