TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Rio Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Vit Kopriva

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Etcheverryof Etcheverry, Kopriva
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$371,793
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$398,740

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $371,793 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 291 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x88d1…18dabacked Etcheverry60c25,000$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,00027460.2%165 W · 109 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Kopriva40c24,884$9,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,953.411242.9%48 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4173…d3edbacked Kopriva44c20,856$9,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,078.2155646.4%258 W · 298 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40ed…4ae2backed Etcheverry67c19,068$12,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,358.97450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Etcheverry39c13,290$5,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,056.3838133.9%129 W · 252 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb84a…055dbacked Kopriva61c13,100$7,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,986.512944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x046c…2a9cbacked Etcheverry66c8,957$5,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,070.5735247.2%166 W · 186 L-23.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Kopriva45c7,343$3,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,301.942,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Etcheverry59c7,164$4,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,933.392,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Kopriva34c6,400$2,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,185.747,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Kopriva49c6,099$2,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9992,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09fe…6053backed Kopriva1c6,074$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Kopriva45c5,838$2,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,612.241,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Kopriva46c4,588$2,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,107.522,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Kopriva60c4,444$2,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,666.3976146.6%355 W · 406 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Etcheverry46c3,843$1,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,058.760053.8%323 W · 277 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kopriva62c2,874$1,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,777.6911,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Etcheverry60c2,626$1,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.1165558.9%386 W · 269 L-32.1wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3905…82fcbacked Etcheverry71c2,548$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.525563.6%35 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35ea…99bcbacked Kopriva57c2,494$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,423.0524060.8%146 W · 94 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dc3…9d67backed Kopriva38c2,341$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90039431%122 W · 272 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Etcheverry53c2,207$1,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,043.728,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1909…a2c9backed Etcheverry44c2,157$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,203.165362.3%33 W · 20 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd5d…4183backed Etcheverry64c2,077$1,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.7914250.7%72 W · 70 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Kopriva61c2,048$1,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,248.7111941.2%49 W · 70 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5271…0f95backed Etcheverry39c2,034$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,240.7410835.2%38 W · 70 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cfb…0628backed Etcheverry57c1,957$1,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.1930241.7%126 W · 176 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Etcheverry45c1,936$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.8197046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fb7…fb66backed Etcheverry42c1,892$797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,09553644.8%240 W · 296 L-20.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Etcheverry36c1,866$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,199.0526131.4%82 W · 179 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1fd…abf9backed Etcheverry58c1,835$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.038762.1%54 W · 33 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Etcheverry65c1,805$1,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.6875748.6%368 W · 389 L+16.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Etcheverry39c1,799$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.2469249.6%343 W · 349 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7079…ff26backed Kopriva64c1,710$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.67540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-42.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Kopriva41c1,709$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70098240.1%394 W · 588 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Etcheverry43c1,678$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$956.031,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…8276backed Kopriva45c1,612$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.1424350.2%122 W · 121 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xade0…e568backed Etcheverry48c1,572$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.786344.4%28 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Kopriva37c1,500$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55593055.8%519 W · 411 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Etcheverry52c1,429$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.083,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Kopriva54c1,375$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.3481349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Etcheverry47c1,356$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.314,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Kopriva34c1,222$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.6276140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Kopriva38c1,200$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.991,16137.6%437 W · 724 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Etcheverry41c1,168$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.081,10650.3%556 W · 550 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa02b…70d6backed Etcheverry58c1,133$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.417462.6%109 W · 65 L+34.2wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+35.2%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Etcheverry49c1,096$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.361,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdce3…9d85backed Etcheverry39c1,027$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.425133.3%17 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccbd…f1b7backed Kopriva68c1,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68011040.9%45 W · 65 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Etcheverry33c1,000$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67057645.5%262 W · 314 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed Etcheverry59c999.97$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.9931647.8%151 W · 165 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c2f…499cbacked Etcheverry34c941.91$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.6610345.6%47 W · 56 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Kopriva54c925.93$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50036968%251 W · 118 L-1.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Etcheverry49c916.64$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.632,33546.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Kopriva36c891.03$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.971,21841.1%500 W · 718 L-30.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c7a…7625backed Etcheverry65c863.55$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.7926045.4%118 W · 142 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Kopriva38c789.47$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,84148.5%892 W · 949 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x480e…71e9backed Kopriva66c789.43$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.4413560.7%82 W · 53 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed Etcheverry39c770.33$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.3368026.2%178 W · 502 L-24.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x89fd…da5dbacked Etcheverry37c760.33$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.338845.5%40 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb8…56ecbacked Etcheverry64c756.81$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.0511256.3%63 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f14…1e77backed Kopriva58c739.13$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.353461.8%21 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab4c…2a53backed Kopriva55c721.2$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.193737.8%14 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x46ae…fdbabacked Etcheverry59c677.97$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.971060%6 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Kopriva53c638.38$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.556,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0676…f0f0backed Kopriva38c589.18$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.9420552.7%108 W · 97 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f0f…a571backed Kopriva38c580.32$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.5237339.1%146 W · 227 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1039…2914backed Etcheverry35c574.77$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.7728764.1%184 W · 103 L+0.2wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Kopriva38c570.13$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.181,11842.8%479 W · 639 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6094…e860backed Kopriva36c554.05$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97a0…da35backed Kopriva46c549.18$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25047946.3%222 W · 257 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c9…9ee4backed Etcheverry37c540.54$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.5435730.5%109 W · 248 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d6e…670abacked Etcheverry40c537.28$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.59425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Kopriva56c512$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.164,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7767…4fb2backed Etcheverry37c507.23$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.568350.6%42 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7db0…f397backed Etcheverry45c507$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.2413647.1%64 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Etcheverry59c506.88$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.172,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x903f…de5fbacked Kopriva41c504.36$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.3316830.4%51 W · 117 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1816…06e9backed Etcheverry57c499.98$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.993759.5%22 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Kopriva51c496.74$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.56,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Kopriva65c492.46$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32058359.2%345 W · 238 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b9…771dbacked Etcheverry42c485.31$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.983151.6%16 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x751b…90fbbacked Etcheverry64c465.37$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.3720758%120 W · 87 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7bf…b02dbacked Etcheverry65c461.54$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.5459165.3%386 W · 205 L-16.9wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba86…9ab0backed Etcheverry38c455.26$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.2667239.1%263 W · 409 L-29.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcf1…99d3backed Etcheverry33c454.55$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.5538652.3%202 W · 184 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Kopriva36c440$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.221338.5%82 W · 131 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2755…fef0backed Kopriva69c435.81$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30022634.5%78 W · 148 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Etcheverry49c424.22$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.481,97346.3%914 W · 1,059 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Kopriva62c417.6$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.914250%21 W · 21 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+19.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x31c8…f2d8backed Etcheverry30c405.1$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.977632.9%25 W · 51 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Etcheverry60c400$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16146551.2%238 W · 227 L-23.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbf3…aa3abacked Kopriva55c363.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020748.3%100 W · 107 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9206…42a6backed Kopriva65c352.88$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.375858.6%34 W · 24 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4fa…f25ebacked Etcheverry53c340$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.117840.4%72 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Etcheverry30c333.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.331,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8baa…d404backed Etcheverry63c320$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.42857.1%16 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aad…20aebacked Etcheverry63c315.6$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.652460.9%319 W · 205 L+0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5067…a127backed Etcheverry64c312.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.510756.1%60 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb4c…1ca9backed Etcheverry64c306.58$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.9515363.4%97 W · 56 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.