World Politics · resolved market
Will Patriotic Union win the most seats in the next Liechtenstein parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x737de51d36736bd43365678b2c4e6c98135a0186c32d08d99cab9c1be147db1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e55…e3b9backed Yes | 18c | 33,268$5,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,279.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked No | 1c | 2,900$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 110 | 0%0 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 59c | 1,614$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.34 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 32c | 1,605$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.23 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…af91backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 29c | 275.47$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.43 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 71c | 143$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -8.2wins | -0.25per pick | 67cpaid | -37%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 35c | 137.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.8 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 124.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked No | 55c | 102.88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2d…9a55backed No | 54c | 77.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5198…543dbacked Yes | 47c | 77.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 43c | 67.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 32c | 65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 57.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8126…9064backed No | 72c | 57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48f1…93c3backed Yes | 28c | 57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +120.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…a340backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d3…b187backed Yes | 47c | 27.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5174…ea6cbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8a…641abacked No | 72c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab0d…9572backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8f…dfa6backed No | 72c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c93…3e14backed No | 72c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 66c | 16.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…c40cbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Patriotic Union win the most seats in the next Liechtenstein parliamentary election?this page
- Will Democrats for Liechtenstein win the most seats in the next Liechtenstein parliamentary election?No won
- Will Free List win the most seats in the next Liechtenstein parliamentary election?No won
- Will Progressive Citizens' Party in Liechtenstein win the most seats in the next Liechtenstein parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.