World Politics · resolved market
Will Progressive Citizens' Party in Liechtenstein win the most seats in the next Liechtenstein parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35bdcdf606af40a3413d81f88cd7bddd408412e04eff6b6277dd81f84fd2661a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc30c…6509backed Yes | 0c | 11,501$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 3cpaid | +298.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…ab23backed Yes | 0c | 10,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 63c | 3,916$2,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,476.68 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 67c | 603.97$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.43 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 52c | 557.12$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.7 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27c7…38c5backed Yes | 72c | 367$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…19bbbacked No | 28c | 367$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f9…f569backed Yes | 72c | 177.74$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 32c | 130.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.9 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 50c | 127$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…7d99backed Yes | 74c | 121$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.49 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x846f…750ebacked Yes | 64c | 115$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Yes | 73c | 102.86$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…9d02backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f6…275bbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1837…cf3abacked Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…d0babacked Yes | 53c | 94.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…cec5backed No | 34c | 91.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 16c | 85.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.37 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1921…5efdbacked Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac57…f164backed Yes | 70c | 72.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 64.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes | 71c | 64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -8.2wins | -0.25per pick | 67cpaid | -37%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7441…233cbacked No | 32c | 61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 25cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x830a…5cadbacked Yes | 68c | 61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…beafbacked Yes | 69c | 52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2bb…b014backed No | 31c | 52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 36cpaid | +186.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab4…13b2backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 68c | 49.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed No | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 34c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 33c | 44.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d91…54a3backed Yes | 72c | 43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 30c | 42.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b7…1f61backed No | 32c | 38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 22cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…1836backed Yes | 68c | 38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd3…263fbacked No | 39c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a3…e3b7backed Yes | 68c | 31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa732…2cbbbacked Yes | 58c | 29.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 59cpaid | -60%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9c…ea73backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…4831backed No | 47c | 21.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…e606backed Yes | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…cd52backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b09…4a8fbacked Yes | 71c | 19.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x750e…7575backed Yes | 68c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a93…4ddebacked Yes | 70c | 18.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe734…5b4dbacked Yes | 71c | 17.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22ed…3121backed Yes | 68c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Progressive Citizens' Party in Liechtenstein win the most seats in the next Liechtenstein parliamentary election?this page
- Will Democrats for Liechtenstein win the most seats in the next Liechtenstein parliamentary election?No won
- Will Free List win the most seats in the next Liechtenstein parliamentary election?No won
- Will Patriotic Union win the most seats in the next Liechtenstein parliamentary election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.