Mls · resolved market
Nashville SC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73d4405b0c4a08c71b82e113cd697bfcdf3dbe1d6c4644b96a470582e26068a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 56c | 4,056$2,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,784.83 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x693a…1417backed Under | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d2…399bbacked Under | 10c | 2,500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…b35cbacked Under | 10c | 2,500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6daf…a17cbacked Over | 62c | 2,249$1,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 2,145$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.78 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8df…a2c7backed Under | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 1,144$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.73 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 40c | 1,138$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.2 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 36c | 729.4$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.58 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 22c | 673.02$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.13 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under | 15c | 398.33$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 59c | 244.48$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.5 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb0…5390backed Over | 41c | 243$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 44c | 221$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…4eb2backed Under | 46c | 217.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 12c | 216.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 45c | 179.2$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.64 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 51c | 172.5$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 20c | 168.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…3ef8backed Over | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 47c | 97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 57c | 96.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 67c | 83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 49c | 82.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f0…a0b1backed Over | 67c | 74.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8955…3a83backed Under | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 44c | 64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 36c | 57.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 55c | 55.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 44c | 39.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…561dbacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 55cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23f8…2c9abacked Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 74cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +9.4wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Under | 44c | 28.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x724b…8cd9backed Under | 45c | 28.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 45c | 25.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nashville SC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 2.5this page
- Nashville SC vs. Columbus Crew: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Nashville SC vs. Columbus Crew: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Nashville SC vs. Columbus Crew: Columbus Crew O/U 1.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. Columbus Crew: Nashville SC O/U 0.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 0.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 3.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 4.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Columbus Crew (-1.5)Nashville SC won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5)Columbus Crew won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-2.5)Columbus Crew won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.