Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or higher on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73ed4dbc7afb6faaf07e8b27404125d958d03d16f4887bda66f53ad2334e050e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,878 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58de…83afbacked No | 68c | 945.22$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.99 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 46c | 504.24$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 32c | 207.59$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.68 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b7…9f11backed No | 39c | 175.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 61c | 170$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…277cbacked No | 74c | 135.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 18c | 114.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 35c | 110$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.97 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 41c | 87.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 23c | 84.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 45c | 82.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 61c | 77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 13c | 76.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 14c | 76.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 21c | 73.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 35c | 69.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 23c | 66.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 75c | 57.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 57c | 55.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2b…b2aebacked No | 38c | 53.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 36c | 51.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 65c | 46.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 41c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf3…3c08backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 60c | 37.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x624e…e95cbacked Yes | 79c | 36.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 53c | 35.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe68c…779dbacked Yes | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfea…8006backed Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 36c | 34.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea4…1bc7backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 66c | 30.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…d21abacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 67c | 29.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 58c | 25.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4c…ee3ebacked No | 48c | 25.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd56e…b9a6backed Yes | 59c | 24.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…8565backed No | 61c | 23.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 50c | 22.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 66c | 20.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or higher on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.