Stocks · resolved market
Will Google reach $330 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73f9593ba061f60c082b0b667f8113ad425c047561535effbb4a0e0f0ae989f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 0c | 13,434$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 60c | 381.96$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.86 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17da…31f3backed No | 11c | 300$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169b…30c9backed No | 27c | 279.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…e9adbacked Yes | 66c | 226.11$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…f11abacked No | 45c | 205.8$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 155$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed No | 35c | 123.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7c…c08ebacked Yes | 55c | 99.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c30…7673backed No | 42c | 67.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 47c | 66.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 61c | 64.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 75 | 77.3%58 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 38c | 31.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd1…0b70backed Yes | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google reach $330 in January?this page
- Will Google dip to $240 in January?No won
- Will Google dip to $260 in January?No won
- Will Google dip to $275 in January?No won
- Will Google dip to $290 in January?No won
- Will Google dip to $300 in January?No won
- Will Google dip to $310 in January?No won
- Will Google reach $320 in January?Yes won
- Will Google reach $340 in January?Yes won
- Will Google reach $355 in January?No won
- Will Google reach $375 in January?No won
- Will Google reach $395 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.