Stocks · resolved market
Will Google reach $340 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23599bf9c35a140af62cd33929c976bbf031339b1bbc739d714906802057628f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 3,617$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,443 | 8.8%127 W · 1,316 L | -53.1wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 32c | 1,413$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.06 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb0…70e6backed No | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 37c | 820.06$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.78 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Yes | 70c | 747.01$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 44c | 671.15$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.2 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa082…f877backed No | 71c | 300$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 22c | 286.16$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.32 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c30…7673backed No | 69c | 219.74$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.02 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…3f4fbacked No | 52c | 183.6$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +217.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 171.84$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.95 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9443…dd60backed Yes | 65c | 154.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 145$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbe…b616backed No | 66c | 120.8$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…f11abacked No | 69c | 111.43$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,106 | 43.9%486 W · 620 L | +27.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…2d5ebacked Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 66c | 80$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e47…1268backed Yes | 62c | 56.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 47.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 169 | 49.1%83 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc5…2015backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4af3…fbe5backed Yes | 51c | 42.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…9b85backed Yes | 56c | 35.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3f…ed20backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 56c | 25.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 75 | 77.3%58 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google reach $340 in January?this page
- Will Google dip to $240 in January?No won
- Will Google dip to $260 in January?No won
- Will Google dip to $275 in January?No won
- Will Google dip to $290 in January?No won
- Will Google dip to $300 in January?No won
- Will Google dip to $310 in January?No won
- Will Google reach $320 in January?Yes won
- Will Google reach $330 in January?Yes won
- Will Google reach $355 in January?No won
- Will Google reach $375 in January?No won
- Will Google reach $395 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.