Stocks · resolved market
Will Google dip to $300 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ff72e068e9f89b330f222f94dde707c0ed9a053e75f6cba65d1a275daf30d56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 693.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 12c | 625.65$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.12 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7c…c08ebacked Yes | 14c | 549.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x277e…7d32backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 16c | 461.71$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 345.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 13c | 298.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f1…137cbacked No | 71c | 281.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.74 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 32c | 226.27$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.58 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 8c | 223.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 8c | 212.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 8c | 209.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 190.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.69 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 35c | 175.42$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 166.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 11c | 152.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 70 | 71.4%50 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed Yes | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…f11abacked No | 58c | 127.59$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 117.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 20c | 114$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82b5…1542backed No | 63c | 110.49$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 17c | 106.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 80c | 73.41$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f09…f1c3backed Yes | 16c | 66.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +131.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 57c | 57.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 75 | 77.3%58 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 26c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc5…2015backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 53c | 38.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7a…2f10backed No | 64c | 16.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google dip to $300 in January?this page
- Will Google dip to $240 in January?No won
- Will Google dip to $260 in January?No won
- Will Google dip to $275 in January?No won
- Will Google dip to $290 in January?No won
- Will Google dip to $310 in January?No won
- Will Google reach $320 in January?Yes won
- Will Google reach $330 in January?Yes won
- Will Google reach $340 in January?Yes won
- Will Google reach $355 in January?No won
- Will Google reach $375 in January?No won
- Will Google reach $395 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.