Stocks · resolved market
Will Google reach $355 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa27ede504d9e0819feee8f11275aa40939a3e5a3f6e3c52fffc36998b23e2ac0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 16c | 1,981$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.81 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 16c | 1,622$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.74 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.85 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 23c | 1,165$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.27 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,024$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 7c | 774.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 1,106 | 43.9%486 W · 620 L | +27.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…d3ddbacked Yes | 17c | 629.41$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 9c | 600$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 479.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 1,443 | 8.8%127 W · 1,316 L | -53.1wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…5460backed Yes | 24c | 349.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66be…744abacked Yes | 16c | 337.63$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 68c | 300$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 5c | 264.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 78c | 255$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 237.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 230.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2540…43d2backed Yes | 53c | 213.77$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5642…5117backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cf…22afbacked Yes | 9c | 166.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8658…0d47backed Yes | 33c | 152.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 10c | 128.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Yes | 30c | 116.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 66c | 104.59$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb48c…ab11backed Yes | 26c | 81.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9065…f13abacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google reach $355 in January?this page
- Will Google dip to $240 in January?No won
- Will Google dip to $260 in January?No won
- Will Google dip to $275 in January?No won
- Will Google dip to $290 in January?No won
- Will Google dip to $300 in January?No won
- Will Google dip to $310 in January?No won
- Will Google reach $320 in January?Yes won
- Will Google reach $330 in January?Yes won
- Will Google reach $340 in January?Yes won
- Will Google reach $375 in January?No won
- Will Google reach $395 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.