MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7406301abe38410ff67b284735988a34c8f7648c684b2ae227184322c8f4e324
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b4e…0232backed Over | 48c | 71,815$34,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,343.85 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 52c | 50,000$26,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,000 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 24,109$12,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,371.08 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 42c | 20,421$8,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,798.57 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 11,484$5,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,962.26 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 60c | 10,000$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000.3 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…e7e0backed Under | 52c | 4,222$2,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,195.44 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 4,167$2,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,320.77 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 53c | 2,263$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.09 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 2,222$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.5 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 51c | 2,011$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.59 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 47c | 1,798$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.81 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 46c | 1,384$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.54 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 52c | 1,365$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.8 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 55c | 1,110$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.5 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Over | 47c | 1,109$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.68 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 52c | 1,024$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.48 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 31c | 751.07$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.39 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 36c | 424.26$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.43 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 43c | 407.84$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.47 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc431…53ffbacked Under | 26c | 367.96$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 63c | 270.32$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x378c…14b8backed Under | 57c | 257.89$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 47c | 244.68$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.68 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 231$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.12 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fda…b819backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 53c | 202$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.06 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…969bbacked Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…3bb3backed Under | 48c | 191.67$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 54c | 186$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.44 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 49c | 166$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 42c | 154$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.32 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 47c | 149.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.22 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 52c | 140$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 52c | 140$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x461c…f74bbacked Under | 53c | 132.95$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Under | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 70c | 123$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…3c88backed Under | 59c | 122.03$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…3961backed Over | 42c | 121.57$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 56c | 118.55$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.16 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 39c | 114.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 53c | 114$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed Under | 52c | 99.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 54c | 93.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Under | 33c | 90.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 47c | 79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 44c | 74.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 44c | 69.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 731 | 43.4%317 W · 414 L | -15.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 47c | 59.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d69…ab3abacked Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 55c | 53.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Over | 41c | 48.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Under | 54c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 47c | 44.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 61c | 42.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…2deebacked Under | 53c | 41.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 179 | 52%93 W · 86 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 53c | 40.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33d2…9ac2backed Under | 57c | 28.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Under | 51c | 25.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb5…3444backed Over | 47c | 22.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-5.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.