MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e4cf862c4b70e5be05dfac85d6f696e9746f2445aace157808e7d1ef4f07e5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 56c | 2,133$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.44 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 45c | 1,364$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.52 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked No | 76c | 781.26$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.9 | 132 | 64.4%85 W · 47 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Yes | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Yes | 23c | 447.05$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.39 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 44c | 336.16$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.91 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed No | 55c | 318.93$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.52 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 44c | 288.99$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.16 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe43c…b79abacked No | 56c | 258.14$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 33c | 245.11$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.91 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 45c | 181$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Yes | 25c | 170$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 26c | 154.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 77c | 125$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed No | 80c | 123.75$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 138 | 58.7%81 W · 57 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 80c | 122.5$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Yes | 46c | 109$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed Yes | 22c | 91.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 190 | 41.1%78 W · 112 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked No | 80c | 72.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a3…5b70backed Yes | 34c | 65.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 38c | 49.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked No | 52c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed No | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Yes | 26c | 47.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked No | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…400bbacked Yes | 45c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1303…c8b4backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked No | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -8.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlinsthis page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-5.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.