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Tennis · resolved market

Birmingham: Celine Naef vs Mary Stoiana

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mary Stoianaof Celine Naef, Mary Stoiana
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$172,786
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$176,496

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,786 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 205 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Mary Stoiana35c18,063$6,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,729.639,03836.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L-196.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Celine Naef61c14,625$8,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,924.1794140.6%382 W · 559 L-31.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Celine Naef60c9,716$5,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,827.844,76049.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L+176.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Mary Stoiana45c3,502$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,926.8165952.5%346 W · 313 L+27.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Celine Naef78c3,108$2,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,422.694,25345%1,912 W · 2,341 L+20.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Celine Naef51c2,907$1,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,492.0111,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1607…79bebacked Mary Stoiana8c2,301$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,116.841028.8%9 W · 93 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Celine Naef79c2,289$1,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,798.478,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Mary Stoiana39c2,041$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,241.1411437.7%43 W · 71 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1bf…e36bbacked Mary Stoiana26c1,927$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,427.444117.1%7 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef04…f6e3backed Celine Naef64c1,871$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.975054%27 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1747…4afcbacked Celine Naef41c1,740$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.3925451.6%131 W · 123 L+1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dfe…a5d6backed Mary Stoiana48c1,667$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.6750458.9%297 W · 207 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Mary Stoiana36c1,659$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,061.491,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9d6…910dbacked Celine Naef66c1,515$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009740.2%39 W · 58 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x74bd…d371backed Mary Stoiana7c1,482$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,378.342125.7%108 W · 313 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Celine Naef58c1,421$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.132,32652.1%1,213 W · 1,113 L+85.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04e6…3914backed Celine Naef68c1,205$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.5934655.2%191 W · 155 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6168…dda9backed Celine Naef47c1,191$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.755265.4%34 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26e7…cc6cbacked Mary Stoiana41c1,179$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.7239238.8%152 W · 240 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a8c…ba13backed Celine Naef62c1,168$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.2422056.4%124 W · 96 L+0.5wins0.00per pick56cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ec6…50cdbacked Mary Stoiana35c1,016$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.057047.1%33 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Mary Stoiana38c1,000$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.959,37444.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L-244.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Mary Stoiana34c999.98$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.9985634.2%293 W · 563 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75a7…2d61backed Celine Naef40c924.7$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.8871725.2%181 W · 536 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Mary Stoiana39c905.78$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.372,77653.7%1,491 W · 1,285 L+69.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa44a…88ecbacked Mary Stoiana35c846.3$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.4352557%299 W · 226 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bfa…a8debacked Celine Naef61c816.41$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50035951.3%184 W · 175 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd1f…9136backed Mary Stoiana62c795.97$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.479751.5%50 W · 47 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Celine Naef66c758.3$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5009556.8%54 W · 41 L+0.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ab8…1b4abacked Mary Stoiana44c752.12$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.1927554.9%151 W · 124 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Mary Stoiana43c701$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.531,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Mary Stoiana42c700$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4061,22841.1%505 W · 723 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d74…f2abbacked Mary Stoiana67c664.54$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.5443334.9%151 W · 282 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Mary Stoiana38c629.76$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.582,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27fa…d8c4backed Celine Naef39c579.95$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.1813928.1%39 W · 100 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99d7…6435backed Mary Stoiana35c565.38$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.71,14853%608 W · 540 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cb6…96d1backed Celine Naef65c552.95$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36046565.6%305 W · 160 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Celine Naef55c521.2$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.28,70242.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L-165.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f35…95dabacked Celine Naef65c505$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.2546544.3%206 W · 259 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Celine Naef56c498.93$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.226,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Mary Stoiana44c492.99$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.071,04750%524 W · 523 L+37.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Mary Stoiana43c488.34$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.484,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba4…6de0backed Celine Naef62c478.24$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.4528048.9%137 W · 143 L-14.9wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Mary Stoiana43c451.32$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.6891755.5%509 W · 408 L+2.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Mary Stoiana37c436.15$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.917,96850.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L+92.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Celine Naef65c424.18$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.723,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed Celine Naef56c423.41$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.486942%29 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Celine Naef68c419.84$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.333,72642.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L-48.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Mary Stoiana48c416.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.671,85348.4%897 W · 956 L-32.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked Mary Stoiana56c415.95$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.021,01846.8%476 W · 542 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Mary Stoiana46c405.36$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.361,14447.2%540 W · 604 L+64.7wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa163…3ccbbacked Celine Naef8c386$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.384339.5%17 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed Celine Naef8c385.86$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8548235.9%173 W · 309 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Mary Stoiana68c375.13$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.831,92655.4%1,067 W · 859 L-44.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Celine Naef52c373.01$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.883,71145.3%1,680 W · 2,031 L-6.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Celine Naef66c372.91$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.121,12350.3%565 W · 558 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb767…d848backed Celine Naef44c372$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.7522667.7%153 W · 73 L+1.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Mary Stoiana59c357.91$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.984,97538.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L-19.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed Celine Naef8c355.76$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9245235.8%162 W · 290 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Mary Stoiana38c352.27$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.831,37138.3%525 W · 846 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c6…7b39backed Mary Stoiana35c346$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.738141.2%157 W · 224 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Celine Naef63c303.25$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1902,06946.7%966 W · 1,103 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Celine Naef65c303.02$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.961,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf5b…5d3abacked Celine Naef67c298.76$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003174.2%23 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick68cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cf4…15a4backed Mary Stoiana31c296.99$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.64933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed Mary Stoiana40c296.35$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.8173748%354 W · 383 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f6a…9888backed Mary Stoiana39c287.08$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.841,22255%672 W · 550 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26ca…da6abacked Mary Stoiana67c274.68$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.498158%47 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bf9…be26backed Mary Stoiana44c268.95$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.6143062.3%268 W · 162 L-0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Mary Stoiana43c266.25$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.4684640%338 W · 508 L-22.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d3e…061cbacked Celine Naef64c250$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010143.6%44 W · 57 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Mary Stoiana40c242.21$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.965,42256.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L+231.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Celine Naef65c240$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15558745.7%268 W · 319 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffef…dabfbacked Mary Stoiana42c237.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.0315754.8%86 W · 71 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc399…53abbacked Mary Stoiana56c231$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.791637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x03ed…8f34backed Celine Naef39c223$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a00…9158backed Celine Naef58c212$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.9679040.6%321 W · 469 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf647…0ccbbacked Celine Naef47c202.98$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.233666.7%24 W · 12 L+5.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+630.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcbbc…2b70backed Celine Naef17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3439941.9%167 W · 232 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9644…d03bbacked Celine Naef64c192$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.8837247.3%176 W · 196 L-17.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4cc9…625cbacked Mary Stoiana52c190.66$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.662100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+58.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb16…96b5backed Mary Stoiana71c187.17$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2844448.9%217 W · 227 L-13.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf970…f7f6backed Mary Stoiana21c177.5$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.572,52836.2%914 W · 1,614 L-26.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Mary Stoiana40c172.87$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.873,26240.3%1,314 W · 1,948 L+22.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x508f…775fbacked Mary Stoiana45c171.11$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.112045%9 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Mary Stoiana52c157.47$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.0764346.2%297 W · 346 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3a2…8ff7backed Celine Naef58c157.37$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.4539443.9%173 W · 221 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21b5…1db6backed Mary Stoiana66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5228562.8%179 W · 106 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Mary Stoiana37c146.05$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.053,45738.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L-15.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ef9…6e00backed Celine Naef74c135.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-10.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6195…388abacked Mary Stoiana42c135$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.318850%94 W · 94 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc174…66f2backed Mary Stoiana74c134$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.842065%13 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b9d…269dbacked Celine Naef69c132.07$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.5233352.6%175 W · 158 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x692b…b4f2backed Mary Stoiana37c129.12$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.3545744.2%202 W · 255 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Celine Naef66c127.83$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3750340%201 W · 302 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Mary Stoiana35c125.04$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.362,52138.4%969 W · 1,552 L+93.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b43…9e23backed Celine Naef40c122.5$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4919531.3%61 W · 134 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7776…1e8cbacked Mary Stoiana9c122.22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.222642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Mary Stoiana35c120$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7847854.8%262 W · 216 L+25.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+23.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.