Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74134a6d3503cf877ebc486c9a9f232905a28a1f6765b4c1a9ddaea86021d035
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 362.76$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.32 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 32c | 247.36$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.46 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 24c | 220.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 219.92$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 188.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 68c | 138.12$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 135.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 36c | 120$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 77c | 113.58$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 109$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 32c | 99.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 69c | 90.8$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 23c | 86.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 27c | 80.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…2e64backed No | 74c | 72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 72c | 69.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 69.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 64.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 70c | 64.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 63c | 63.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 63.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 36c | 61.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 24c | 60.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed Yes | 39c | 57.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 66c | 57.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 33c | 52.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 31c | 52.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 69c | 50.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…478abacked Yes | 26c | 41.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 40c | 37.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06b4…6307backed Yes | 35c | 35.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 66c | 35.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 35c | 33.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 32.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 69c | 29.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 60c | 26.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 74c | 22.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 71c | 21.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 70c | 21.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 69c | 20.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 63c | 18.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 69c | 17.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e04…67f4backed No | 73c | 17.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 77c | 17.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.