Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8a7b49b58639f06bc519958d3b4601591687c2d3e65f7aebf607dabf4c53b34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 53c | 870.41$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.47 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 750.6$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 21c | 378.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.28 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 257.93$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Yes | 51c | 173.76$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.76 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 46c | 144.91$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.64 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 72c | 138.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23ae…8c25backed Yes | 58c | 134.29$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 113.43$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 109$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 67c | 107.1$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 49c | 106.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 37c | 104.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed No | 48c | 103.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 103.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 44c | 99.6$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.47 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 39c | 95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 88.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 44c | 80.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 73.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 63.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 45c | 61.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 37c | 61.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 47c | 54.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 37c | 54.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…9ec3backed No | 41c | 51.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 44c | 47.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 39c | 46.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 28c | 45.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 58c | 44.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 56c | 42.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 41.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 61c | 39.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 59c | 33.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 30.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 56c | 26.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…1ff4backed No | 44c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 41c | 25.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 41c | 25.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 55c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 50c | 23.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 20.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…2de4backed No | 61c | 19.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x837c…d774backed Yes | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 64c | 16.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.