MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74456f95e2a59fa46adc9175657b779a978282d9da302b70955187a664523b60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f36…2819backed Under | 52c | 1,029$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.3 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…307cbacked Under | 58c | 869$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.02 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 543.32$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.85 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 40c | 504.52$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.47 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 44c | 443.54$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.97 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x565a…3207backed Over | 45c | 424.53$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.57 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 65c | 413.58$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.26 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 43c | 385.28$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.41 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 35c | 358.29$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.89 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 58c | 204.93$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.86 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 43c | 180.31$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.11 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6646…0c6ebacked Under | 67c | 179.1$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 50c | 126.18$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 29c | 105.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Under | 67c | 63.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 206 | 49.5%102 W · 104 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 44c | 48.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…1d74backed Over | 55c | 35.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Under | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…643cbacked Over | 43c | 29.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Under | 58c | 27.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 54c | 25.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 56c | 21.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41d8…7233backed Over | 58c | 20.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-9.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.