MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5421f7fb3e710687743618e992c170525457fddc7a01252d26dad041f7b31d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 42c | 747.95$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.46 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed No | 57c | 418.28$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.86 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Yes | 43c | 406.84$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.94 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 43c | 399.39$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.58 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed No | 58c | 345.73$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.73 | 407 | 53.6%218 W · 189 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a1…e6d5backed No | 57c | 255.79$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.55 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…0b79backed No | 58c | 231.03$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.03 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb416…4588backed No | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 43c | 136.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9956…44e0backed No | 55c | 110$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…1d21backed No | 58c | 95.57$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 340 | 45%153 W · 187 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Yes | 47c | 73.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 45c | 72.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cef…8634backed No | 57c | 54.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked Yes | 64c | 51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc26a…76a1backed Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77e1…0d6bbacked No | 56c | 44.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 47c | 39.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…0dfdbacked No | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 42c | 32.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0acabacked No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9c…8824backed Yes | 60c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c77…bde7backed No | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Redsthis page
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-9.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.