TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$135,331
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$159,899

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,331 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cf…2f63backed Over48c44,492$21,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,060.34,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Under52c29,197$15,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,052.062,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Over53c23,385$12,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,885.3823846.6%111 W · 127 L+0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Under51c8,577$4,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,374.3341149.1%202 W · 209 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over46c5,000$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,699.991,29250.2%648 W · 644 L+18.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over47c2,712$1,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,450.2611,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Over46c2,212$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.193,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Over47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,06055052.4%288 W · 262 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Over49c1,928$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.5389153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over42c1,795$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,048.899,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd181…5136backed Over58c1,715$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.181060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over53c1,571$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.788,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over47c1,417$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.021,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Over48c1,087$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.2138353.5%205 W · 178 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under52c1,070$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.451,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Under47c1,070$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.99666.7%64 W · 32 L+16.4wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Over49c1,005$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.5573748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over47c852.56$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.588,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under52c837.93$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.216,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16db…8d0fbacked Under61c646.11$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.912744.4%12 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under61c642.72$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.112352.8%65 W · 58 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cd3…5896backed Over49c509.99$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.0917446%80 W · 94 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Under14c502$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.421,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Under48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24061947.7%295 W · 324 L-1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86ee…511fbacked Under54c462.96$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25024350.6%123 W · 120 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Under53c394$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.391,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under50c323.77$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.881,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Under51c286$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.5299744.1%440 W · 557 L-38.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3146…d153backed Under61c245.91$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.0117749.7%88 W · 89 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x797f…f08abacked Over45c244.44$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.448050%40 W · 40 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over41c235.45$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.764,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Over59c206$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.4657046.8%267 W · 303 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Under52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,00052.4%524 W · 476 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Under52c186$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7275049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe14…2d1bbacked Under54c181.73$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.13616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick39cpaid-65.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Over70c166.33$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.92,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Over50c164.4$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.21,21855.6%677 W · 541 L+94.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Over47c163.38$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.5949158.9%289 W · 202 L+30.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2003…af6fbacked Over50c150$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7512446%57 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+22.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Under55c150$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.7527248.5%132 W · 140 L-1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x085b…ab9fbacked Over30c138.47$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.9333934.5%117 W · 222 L-9.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under50c134.96$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.482,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3704…5487backed Over50c131.36$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.4615349.7%76 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over55c103.67$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4910,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d3…91aabacked Over49c101.39$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.711346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4193…4853backed Over49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5184651.5%436 W · 410 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ed2…0ddabacked Over48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5257747.7%275 W · 302 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5437357.4%214 W · 159 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Under53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5361948.6%301 W · 318 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under62c98.9$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.758,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3803…765ebacked Under54c96.3$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27cf…979abacked Under60c82.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012049.2%59 W · 61 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x389d…995fbacked Under60c82.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5013144.3%58 W · 73 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e45…39dabacked Under60c82.81$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9918547.6%88 W · 97 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5b3…4756backed Under61c81.96$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5013046.9%61 W · 69 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under53c80.15$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.142,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c97…82adbacked Over49c77.55$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.556842.6%29 W · 39 L-6.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-15.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under78c75$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.555,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa05a…4635backed Under41c62.31$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6883053%440 W · 390 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Under54c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.41,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Over50c57.24$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.621,01450.4%511 W · 503 L+52.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe743…ce0fbacked Under53c56.58$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.86940.6%28 W · 41 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c59…0c2cbacked Under61c49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.89837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x41d8…7233backed Over53c47.06$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.18560%51 W · 34 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over47c46.6$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.732857.9%190 W · 138 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Under53c46.06$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.281,00157.3%574 W · 427 L+2.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d92…0aaabacked Under48c41.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Over49c41.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8282551.6%426 W · 399 L+3.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee11…19a9backed Under51c39.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1711553%61 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e5b…bb9abacked Over54c33.33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3314358.7%84 W · 59 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd155…8250backed Over52c32.76$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7250954%275 W · 234 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e24…b31fbacked Under52c31.73$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.53756.8%21 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc37e…9e64backed Under53c31.13$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.529553.2%157 W · 138 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Over40c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1824350.2%122 W · 121 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x938e…9b66backed Under51c29.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1548150.7%244 W · 237 L-19.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Under47c24.93$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6914938.3%57 W · 92 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6a1…5a4fbacked Over48c23.96$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.464252.4%22 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06b…c1e1backed Under52c23.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.223650%18 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Under67c21.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3448653.7%261 W · 225 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe461…c5aebacked Under52c21.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.042564%16 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+18.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x05b7…c24abacked Under60c21.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7328043.2%121 W · 159 L-23.2wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8582…40cebacked Over53c20.72$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.721241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed Under71c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.235341.1%145 W · 208 L-16.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cdf…8666backed Under71c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.25343.4%23 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bf2…fa7bbacked Under52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick54cpaid+54.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d9c…8824backed Under61c19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.59540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.