MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3713ee42524fe1060d493726908ed93049f6f541d8c457ca4d957e87d9caa121
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 58c | 1,651$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.77 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 36c | 1,003$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.07 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 719.85$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.44 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Over | 64c | 668.9$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.8 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 42c | 641.65$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.49 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Under | 42c | 589.71$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.87 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 35c | 464.39$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.54 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 58c | 402.61$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.67 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 45c | 380.44$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.78 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Under | 42c | 358.35$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 64c | 212.02$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.22 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 36c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 45c | 148.06$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 37c | 136$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Under | 41c | 121.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Under | 42c | 119.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Under | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Under | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 47c | 105.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.73 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 15c | 71.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.77 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 59c | 65.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 35c | 52.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 53c | 46.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5c…fb95backed Under | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…1d74backed Over | 57c | 34.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Under | 51c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Over | 61c | 21.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93dd…2f33backed Under | 56c | 19.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-9.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.