Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74678172f6acf43d185165c2bcf6a1cb78d366af08a5f4f256a6381afaab00b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 60c | 569.3$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.72 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 41c | 534$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.47 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f88…c6e8backed Under | 61c | 454$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.06 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -13.7wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 63c | 420.91$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.8 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 38c | 355.38$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.16 | 170 | 40.6%69 W · 101 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da5…e620backed Under | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Under | 59c | 254.11$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.14 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Over | 40c | 214.8$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.92 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed Over | 40c | 176$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 28c | 173.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…6815backed Under | 62c | 165$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Over | 28c | 155$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64d…7392backed Over | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Over | 38c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 227 | 38.3%87 W · 140 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bc…4347backed Over | 31c | 114.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +6.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…b1b4backed Under | 63c | 103.63$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 84.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 24c | 78.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x845d…aef6backed Over | 28c | 57.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 61c | 45.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…ca8bbacked Over | 40c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…489cbacked Under | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 78c | 25.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac3…1347backed Under | 63c | 22.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -7.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 66c | 20.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International Elimination RoundTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5)Team Falcons won
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.