Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74a978c48a69c3423f1a6d2521b49c1e466af088f46161fb43112e41dbe746c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 45c | 725$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.38 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 63c | 299.91$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.48 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 40c | 272.04$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.07 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 40c | 232.73$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.57 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 199.21$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.31 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 54c | 192$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.32 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 38c | 170.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 170$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 160.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 47c | 150$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 44c | 148.57$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.37 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 61c | 136$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.35 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 130.64$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 59c | 127.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 38c | 119.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 38c | 117.07$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.68 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…6a0fbacked Yes | 47c | 113$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 55c | 111$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 56c | 105.23$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 100.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 100.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…adb7backed No | 72c | 97.15$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 57c | 74.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…4012backed Yes | 47c | 71.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 56c | 69.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 56c | 69.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 45c | 67.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 47c | 64.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 55c | 57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 53c | 49.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 53c | 46.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 46c | 43.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 39.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30af…2c34backed No | 55c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 66c | 38.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 36.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 48c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 55c | 34.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 33c | 34.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 31.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes | 46c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…a2d2backed Yes | 42c | 28.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 27.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…2830backed Yes | 67c | 25.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 65c | 24.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed Yes | 49c | 21.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 56c | 21.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 59c | 20.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…3d85backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…9e0cbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe06f…7b53backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 74c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on August 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.