Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74eb1b5c94aea5bc1225466834a0ee4ddb0ef8befe0dec72b9783ebd75e089a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 69c | 191.57$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 162.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 50c | 159.74$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.39 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 8c | 154.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed No | 66c | 151.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 61c | 147.54$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 39c | 143.35$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.91 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 106.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 105.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 79.42$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 47c | 74.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 69.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 70c | 69.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 66.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1be…e99fbacked Yes | 32c | 65.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 28c | 64.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 59.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 53.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 44c | 48.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 42.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 29c | 38.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8241…1ababacked No | 56c | 36.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 32c | 35.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 67c | 33.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 64c | 33.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 31.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…50ccbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3286…1acdbacked No | 57c | 27.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 72c | 25.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe71f…b706backed Yes | 45c | 24.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…a381backed No | 56c | 18.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed No | 72c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.