Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e37faf104ccd863388242d431b705f791b8b67dcdb9a2a7556d1f0d4068b994
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 7c | 415.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 11c | 307.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 290.1$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 269.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 225$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 179.94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 148.28$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 142.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 9c | 141.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 140$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 31c | 132.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1be…e99fbacked Yes | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0308…55c6backed Yes | 10c | 107.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 15c | 106.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 32c | 100.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa826…f980backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 34c | 99.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 80.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 66c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 34c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 36c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 66c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 71c | 69.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 68c | 58.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 36c | 51.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 46c | 45.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 30c | 45.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 41c | 45.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 36c | 41.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 41.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 68c | 40.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 37c | 40.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 66c | 39.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 33c | 34.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…4501backed Yes | 35c | 33.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 66c | 31.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 26.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 65c | 23.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 66c | 22.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 68c | 22.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 71c | 18.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 66c | 17.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 66c | 15.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 65c | 15.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 15.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.