Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0588aefac61d8f463152b654e6615c17eef0b0c2f5b25bdfef0af696fac6dd6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 3c | 1,457$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,413.15 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 58c | 796.42$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.5 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 13c | 528.65$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.03 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 398.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.07 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 12c | 288.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 5c | 268.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.76 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 207.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.75 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e2…a783backed Yes | 69c | 195.21$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.21 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 185.55$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 178.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 18c | 170.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.45 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 73c | 163.58$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.81 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 51c | 161.9$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.82 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 42c | 160.9$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.78 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa826…f980backed No | 69c | 144.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 71c | 141.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 56c | 133.49$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 9c | 124.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.47 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 76c | 119.33$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 38c | 101.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 96.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 17c | 94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 33c | 90.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.31 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8c25backed No | 61c | 82.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 60c | 76.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 41c | 72.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 69c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 21c | 71.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa300…24c7backed Yes | 70c | 70.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 53c | 67.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…d97fbacked No | 47c | 63.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 63c | 62.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 59.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 28c | 56.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 29c | 56.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 31c | 54.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 57c | 52.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf7…ebeabacked No | 31c | 48.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 31c | 47.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 30c | 45.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x939e…dc67backed Yes | 35c | 43.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +187%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…d6d0backed Yes | 40c | 42.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 33c | 42.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 40.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 71c | 36.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 47c | 35.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 42c | 34.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 80c | 34.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e28…8b3abacked Yes | 39c | 30.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed Yes | 80c | 30.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 40c | 26.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed Yes | 40c | 25.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed No | 78c | 23.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes | 49c | 22.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b61…cb6abacked Yes | 79c | 18.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5f…a191backed No | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.