Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x103b8971800c6e3ff11a7b43786f5a04e0e7a1f036c792a90a5ec5eb5b8d90cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 17c | 1,378$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.95 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 450.2$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.61 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 254.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 14c | 253.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 58c | 246.25$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.36 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 60c | 241.13$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.47 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 19c | 230.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 216.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 80c | 216.36$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 19c | 209.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 25c | 187.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked Yes | 17c | 162.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 17c | 149.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 18c | 143.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ee…7874backed Yes | 7c | 140.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 17c | 132.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 44c | 119.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.18 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 17c | 115.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 44c | 113.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 80c | 112.75$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b7…eeb5backed Yes | 22c | 110.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 48c | 110$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 24c | 100.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 57c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 18c | 85.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 20c | 83.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 19c | 70.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…cbf9backed Yes | 16c | 68.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 19c | 66.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 73c | 64.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa953…da6dbacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 43c | 58.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 19c | 57.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…d6d0backed Yes | 55c | 54.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 29c | 53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 28c | 52.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 21c | 49.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 40c | 49.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 57c | 48.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 48.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 31c | 46.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…35f2backed No | 72c | 39.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…6a56backed Yes | 39c | 38.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 75c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 76c | 35.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 73c | 34.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 38c | 32.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 74c | 30.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…7a5dbacked Yes | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 39c | 29.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 68c | 29.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 47c | 26.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd29d…f43cbacked Yes | 65c | 26.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 74c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 43c | 23.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a3…3150backed Yes | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…64c0backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…5ddfbacked No | 73c | 13.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 80c | 13.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.69 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.