Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x751244a3e8324e6ea2e9b0565265e9d4136e7b956efd1ee633d53fff7e129195
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Under | 56c | 199.63$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.93 | 961 | 49.9%480 W · 481 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8290…d896backed Over | 55c | 182.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Over | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 626 | 49.8%312 W · 314 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3c…9f22backed Under | 72c | 87.66$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 126 | 44.4%56 W · 70 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 67c | 79.55$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 2,508 | 39.8%999 W · 1,509 L | -76.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…734fbacked Under | 61c | 43.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 160 | 47.5%76 W · 84 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54b…f08bbacked Over | 37c | 40.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 617 | 46.5%287 W · 330 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 77c | 24.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 1,113 | 39%434 W · 679 L | -44.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7954…678dbacked Under | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 67 | 71.6%48 W · 19 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e79…83eebacked Under | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -10.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?this page
- First Blood in Game 1?LYON won
- First Blood in Game 2?G2 Esports won
- First Blood in Game 3?LYON won
- Game 1: Odd/Even Total Kills?Odd won
- Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5)LYON won
- Game Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5)LYON won
- Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5)LYON won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- LoL: G2 Esports vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational PlayoffsLYON won
- LoL: G2 Esports vs LYON - Game 1 WinnerLYON won
- LoL: G2 Esports vs LYON - Game 2 WinnerLYON won
- LoL: G2 Esports vs LYON - Game 3 WinnerLYON won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.