Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x752fd1dd3af801ae400527ab2770c0b8c9d612402891cd73287038f4da59879e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 26c | 445.42$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.61 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 75c | 403.28$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.53 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 74c | 347.25$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.89 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe713…c9a0backed No | 42c | 307.46$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.12 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 48c | 236.37$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.81 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 233.22$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 233.06$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 224.2$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.61 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 59c | 203.09$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.77 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 9c | 201.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 48c | 161.77$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.79 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 30c | 143.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.55 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 125$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.24 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 70c | 106$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…fd1abacked Yes | 72c | 87.61$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 25c | 85.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.31 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 21c | 82.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.29 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8792…4174backed No | 74c | 78.54$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 69.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 75c | 56.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 39c | 53.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 47.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f0b6backed Yes | 32c | 46.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 44.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 33c | 44.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 74c | 42.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7f…ecd4backed Yes | 70c | 40.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 44c | 29.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 78c | 25.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 78c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 71c | 23.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…0002backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18eb…c5fbbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.8wins | +0.30per pick | 51cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e0…03c7backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 57c | 17.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 69c | 15.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.