Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75568ddb430ba4762ad83fc5986aef98a87289396f0e4d3f59d8afdc209cead8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 415.01$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.24 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 44c | 286.03$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.55 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 61c | 247.82$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.44 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 59c | 216.03$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.08 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 192.95$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.08 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 64c | 178.65$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.18 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked No | 34c | 159.64$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 58c | 157.85$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.42 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 11c | 138.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 30c | 135.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.36 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 48c | 81.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 79.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 61.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 60.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 37c | 60.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 39c | 59.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…9599backed Yes | 80c | 58.79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 61c | 58.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 48c | 57.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 60c | 54.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 51.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 33c | 49.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 41c | 47.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 43c | 46.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 44.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 61c | 44.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 66c | 43.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 65c | 41.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 45c | 40.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 40.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 35c | 40.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 35c | 36.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 36c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 59c | 34.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 59c | 33.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 62c | 26.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 62c | 25.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 40c | 25.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 23.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 68c | 16.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 66c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.