Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x755f5ab4549827311b82bc3b2eebe8d2b561d7a4944727b6b8838d0c16331882
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadba…b0afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked No | 79c | 940.37$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.64 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 39c | 786.48$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.5 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 70c | 722.8$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.23 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 22c | 451.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c40…af19backed Yes | 39c | 391.47$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.36 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 40c | 376.15$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.84 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 363.47$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 58c | 272.61$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.85 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 40c | 259.48$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.57 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 25c | 230.72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 26c | 224.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 12c | 220.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 36c | 207.03$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 186.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed No | 73c | 166.07$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 23c | 166.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 31c | 150.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 137.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 129.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 40c | 126.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 122.5$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 23c | 104.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 14c | 103.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec60…8ad8backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 27c | 97.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 87$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 81.24$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…6e6abacked Yes | 19c | 80.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 42c | 76.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 46c | 75.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…7cf2backed No | 66c | 73.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 72.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 33c | 63.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab5…f7d8backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08eb…9ca4backed No | 63c | 60.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed Yes | 23c | 56.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 36c | 53.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5415…f66bbacked Yes | 37c | 45.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 43c | 43.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 58c | 43.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 24c | 42.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e6…762ebacked Yes | 44c | 40.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked Yes | 39c | 39.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 65c | 36.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…bcf1backed Yes | 40c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 45c | 34.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 38c | 33.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 34c | 31.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 42c | 29.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed Yes | 44c | 27.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc845…a654backed Yes | 50c | 27.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 72c | 25.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 59c | 24.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c99…a880backed No | 67c | 21.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 47°C or higher on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.