Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or below on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75695ebc517e0e9c844de6e01009be9282e5684cb0b14341bf69f54d4ae61596
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 47c | 442.05$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.51 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 12c | 399.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 20c | 287$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.86 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c09…3f91backed Yes | 45c | 240.34$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.76 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 45c | 205.5$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.45 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 80c | 191.3$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed Yes | 67c | 188.03$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.59 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 19c | 180.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 70c | 175.05$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.24 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 43c | 167.91$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.15 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 57c | 144.63$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 19c | 124.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 63c | 124.13$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 25c | 115.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 22c | 106.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 55c | 88.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 48c | 69.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 78c | 62.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 64c | 62.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x666d…340bbacked Yes | 60c | 60.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 27c | 56.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 19c | 55.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…7ce5backed No | 27c | 45.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed No | 62c | 44.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 61c | 35.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 55c | 34.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 40c | 34.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced5…e28dbacked Yes | 59c | 33.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 31.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbc…766cbacked No | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 46c | 27.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 60c | 27.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 65c | 25.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed Yes | 57c | 25.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 48c | 22.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 58c | 17.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or below on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.