TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-01-13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$285,543
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$308,923

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $285,543 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd89e…35fabacked No44c34,372$15,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,016.9616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-67.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes69c28,520$19,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,804.713,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4408…1b6abacked No45c25,000$11,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,249.873743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed No46c16,946$7,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,757.9810553.3%56 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80cf…427dbacked Yes55c12,000$6,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,40010445.2%47 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5543…e1f5backed Yes55c9,000$4,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,079.993721.6%8 W · 29 L-6.0wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-64.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes46c8,343$3,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,505.324963.3%31 W · 18 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes57c7,591$4,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,266.991,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x585c…f0a7backed Yes54c6,000$3,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,729.975923.7%14 W · 45 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick34cpaid+8.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Yes56c5,976$3,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,657.2810945.9%50 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48fe…b2b6backed No53c5,500$2,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9053855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes55c5,426$2,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,461.5869851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes55c5,280$2,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,376.1256547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No32c5,250$1,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,688.792,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Yes55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2502065%13 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed Yes55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2509831.6%31 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Yes55c4,000$2,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,819.9811644.8%52 W · 64 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed No34c3,984$1,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347.342429.2%7 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked No45c3,711$1,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,684.071764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+27.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Yes54c3,600$1,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6561546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes73c3,477$2,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.4928241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ca…3748backed Yes47c3,300$1,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,739.062100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8790…010bbacked No9c3,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2707757.1%44 W · 33 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+38.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Yes58c2,755$1,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.019455.3%52 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No50c2,642$1,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,308.1675142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Yes57c2,216$1,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.8114756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed No46c2,174$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x659c…85bbbacked No51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0201546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Yes53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94015847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd05f…8777backed Yes55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9006126.2%16 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-52.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed No45c1,916$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.235457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes64c1,806$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.071,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No14c1,731$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.2740744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked No46c1,657$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.0633945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Yes59c1,437$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.293834.2%13 W · 25 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes55c1,135$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.5515134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf395…8e3cbacked No37c1,100$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.881656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+27.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No42c1,061$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.7334144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde6c…c5d8backed Yes56c1,000$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4452250%11 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x854d…deb0backed No50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+42.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes54c999.99$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46024050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Yes58c999.99$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4203748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Yes54c995.85$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.211056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No27c929.61$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.246227.4%17 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes56c926.86$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.2434342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No44c899.98$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.9912651.6%65 W · 61 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes55c859.05$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.574252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe56e…dc0cbacked Yes48c856.25$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No33c754.71$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.5753645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes55c750$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.538055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa62d…92e0backed Yes55c685.45$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.454920.4%10 W · 39 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd2d7…ba47backed Yes58c650$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2736251.6%32 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x347c…525abacked No49c617.99$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacba…9256backed Yes55c588.92$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.963548.6%17 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ad…fabcbacked Yes75c565.21$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.364856.3%27 W · 21 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Yes73c552.47$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.174835.4%17 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked No42c550.55$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.234837.5%18 W · 30 L-4.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-29%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8dee…412bbacked No46c543.48$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2508846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed No46c543.48$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No27c528.43$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.1316542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked No26c523.24$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.098946.1%41 W · 48 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe49b…2943backed Yes54c500.02$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.011338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68d2…92c8backed Yes55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2251457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x621c…ae1bbacked Yes57c500$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+32.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48f9…cd95backed No48c499.99$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.021181.8%9 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick74cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed No16c494.98$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.658939.3%35 W · 54 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed No20c488.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb023…f142backed Yes57c466.99$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.555554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa42b…41cfbacked Yes54c462.96$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.961546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick36cpaid-12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x985d…e14fbacked No43c449.48$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.493231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-35.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed No15c437.21$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.548551.8%44 W · 41 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed No46c434.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008532.9%28 W · 57 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d56…0ba5backed Yes55c410$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.51464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+27.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5b9…948abacked Yes49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.163221.9%7 W · 25 L-5.4wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-50.7%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Yes50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2005100%5 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+95.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed No15c399.95$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9915829.1%46 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Yes57c395.03$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.744749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4597…272bbacked Yes54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.373246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5151…4e57backed Yes54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.374353.5%23 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Yes56c350$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15420545.9%94 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7f…3223backed Yes59c338.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.983467.6%23 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed No45c312.54$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.439746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe351…e48dbacked No44c305.42$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.774938.8%19 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5316…1d07backed No45c300$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1353122.6%7 W · 24 L-5.8wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-38.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Yes54c296$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.1624322.2%54 W · 189 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ce6…de1fbacked No11c291.37$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.121811.1%2 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-72.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3ec8…397bbacked No36c277.98$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.444143.9%18 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1df…16c1backed Yes55c272.73$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.732245.5%10 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Yes50c266.06$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.0844655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7fd…6c23backed No46c260.87$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+39.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked Yes56c259.1$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.5619446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No16c258.94$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0221041.9%88 W · 122 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Yes56c250.25$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.1818746%86 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a46…ba91backed Yes54c222.22$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.228858%51 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3759…6b3bbacked Yes56c220$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.67335.6%26 W · 47 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d21…b038backed Yes80c218.34$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Yes55c218.18$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.189937.4%37 W · 62 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38d0…899bbacked Yes55c218.18$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.18887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.34per pick53cpaid+67.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3dde…2c06backed No46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005236.5%19 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe1c3…7d73backed No46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002680.8%21 W · 5 L+5.3wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+39.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.