TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,885
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,081

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,885 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4466…9ad1backed No75c7,000$5,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,750666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed No74c3,070$2,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.313154.8%17 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+26.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No75c2,866$2,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.071,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cc1…fdc6backed Yes26c2,500$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcbc…71c1backed No75c2,253$1,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.33560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No74c2,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-55%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc443…359bbacked Yes26c1,847$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.265046%23 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes25c1,722$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.8112651.6%65 W · 61 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes26c1,566$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.1633945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb4d…de5abacked Yes21c1,429$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No74c1,394$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.4769851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes21c1,017$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.133,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes26c1,012$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.1215134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed No74c1,000$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.914447.9%69 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Yes25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacba…9256backed Yes25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503548.6%17 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes13c1,000$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12524050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed No75c987.5$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.87966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+33.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb726…4d2bbacked Yes28c833.32$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid+14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab8…a331backed Yes8c800$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643360.6%20 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x69fd…d3adbacked Yes12c700$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8470%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed No74c626.31$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.845457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes25c600$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1509746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x604d…4608backed Yes26c576.92$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502737%10 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaad…dcdbbacked Yes26c553.85$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe486…0c26backed Yes19c463.16$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863834.2%13 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe889…d0c3backed Yes27c400$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1082920.7%6 W · 23 L-4.0wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-49.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4597…272bbacked Yes26c369.23$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5151…4e57backed Yes26c369.23$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964353.5%23 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc049…48abbacked Yes14c368.23$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506142.6%26 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf43d…1e75backed Yes17c294.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Yes25c267$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7518545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Yes25c255.68$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9216647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb023…f142backed No74c250$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc556…958dbacked Yes20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes26c206$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5617055.3%94 W · 76 L-0.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes19c201.72$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.333852.6%20 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe351…e48dbacked Yes25c200.01$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504938.8%19 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No74c199.98$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.9916045%72 W · 88 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c46…6a2abacked Yes9c198$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.821741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Yes26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-48.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked No74c192.31$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+31.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x79a4…3358backed Yes26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes26c185.73$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2956547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x985d…e14fbacked Yes27c168.2$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.843231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-35.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7fc…1511backed Yes12c167.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked No75c155.22$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed No74c154.26$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.7111056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked No75c154$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.517251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes26c153.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403237.5%12 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6214…db12backed Yes19c152.63$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c4e…2917backed Yes19c150$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No74c147.22$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.282222.7%5 W · 17 L-3.8wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-45%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x54ee…1943backed No75c141.01$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.251546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Yes22c134.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6220545.9%94 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2961…cfcfbacked Yes26c133.46$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.76845.6%31 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1c3…7d73backed No75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.332680.8%21 W · 5 L+5.3wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+39.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x46e7…c9e4backed Yes23c132.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed No74c129.63$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8714756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2298…ac49backed Yes14c126.88$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.52231.8%7 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick17cpaid+54.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes15c123.04$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9614934.9%52 W · 97 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes25c120$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-40.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2316…b824backed Yes26c116$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.16450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+45.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7685…d406backed Yes27c111.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7216…0d67backed Yes17c110.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.534946.9%23 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe96d…e87fbacked Yes19c102.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d55…1e94backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264219%8 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked No70c99.97$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9913555.6%75 W · 60 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No74c99.9$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9755058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f84…67efbacked Yes15c90$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.514726.5%39 W · 108 L-0.5wins0.00per pick27cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec5b…aff2backed Yes28c89.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x450f…9479backed No77c79.99$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.41968.4%13 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab41…c453backed Yes20c77.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.484537.8%17 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef65…f32fbacked Yes26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201978.9%15 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.20per pick59cpaid+39.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1d66…0e16backed Yes26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Yes26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206526.2%17 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbce1…5555backed Yes26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Yes26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208844.3%39 W · 49 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+19.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb1b9…215cbacked Yes25c73$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.25450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb14…0da7backed Yes28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204330.2%13 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad8…9bc1backed Yes26c71.19$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.515137.3%19 W · 32 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-28.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Yes22c68.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7811045.5%50 W · 60 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes25c66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.515160.9%92 W · 59 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x857b…8eeebacked Yes26c64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.64812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-76.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Yes33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204926.5%13 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc48…2427backed Yes26c57.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-59.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa870…2cd1backed No74c54.04$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0511281.3%91 W · 21 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick76cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb821…5cddbacked No75c50.75$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.692871.4%20 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed No74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135076%38 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes26c49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.586227.4%17 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb36a…30cabacked Yes26c48.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-41%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9544…790dbacked Yes26c42.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1111540.9%47 W · 68 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd5d…fbb3backed No75c42.19$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.551861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5404…5e58backed Yes26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.48636%31 W · 55 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11fa…ebf3backed Yes26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-40.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…501ebacked No75c38.67$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.67333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No77c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.938151.4%196 W · 185 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked No74c26.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.931735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-44.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa776…a17bbacked No74c26$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.765100%5 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+57.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xab85…81e6backed No75c25.64$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.411464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.