College Football · resolved market
Spread: Ohio State (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75b8fdbdc0ccf4a4da74132a7f452c7c5b5f855a9cc4413e455e112f4bd11e69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ohio Stateof Ohio State, Illinois
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Ohio State | 50c | 84,613$42,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,244.79 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3672…edbdbacked Illinois | 50c | 80,000$40,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,000 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Illinois | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,200 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Ohio State | 49c | 15,363$7,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,834.94 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Illinois | 49c | 6,171$3,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,023.79 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Ohio State | 49c | 4,170$2,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,122.22 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Illinois | 18c | 1,245$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.89 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Ohio State | 50c | 1,134$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.72 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Illinois | 51c | 1,111$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.61 | 190 | 43.2%82 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Ohio State | 50c | 794.43$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.58 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Illinois | 48c | 508.77$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.21 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed Ohio State | 49c | 408.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.15 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Ohio State | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ef…f8c1backed Ohio State | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35de…b39abacked Ohio State | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ada…475bbacked Ohio State | 52c | 173.22$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e4…9edabacked Ohio State | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Illinois | 51c | 147.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Ohio State | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Ohio State | 49c | 120.32$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Ohio State | 69c | 106.33$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Ohio State | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…73fdbacked Illinois | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Ohio State | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Illinois | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Illinois | 52c | 67.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Illinois | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -35%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Illinois | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Illinois | 50c | 57.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…8c92backed Illinois | 53c | 47.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0c57…224bbacked Ohio State | 52c | 44.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Ohio State | 50c | 43.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Ohio State | 50c | 40.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Ohio State | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…f18cbacked Ohio State | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Ohio State | 51c | 38.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…416abacked Ohio State | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0db2…048abacked Ohio State | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ohio State (-14.5)this page
- Ohio State vs. IllinoisOhio State won
- Ohio State vs. Illinois: O/U 49.5Over won
- Ohio State vs. Illinois: O/U 51.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.