La Liga · resolved market
RCD Mallorca vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75f59310347715a3df51479fc46c2bab9cdc7f29f73067122664f65457715efc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 13c | 1,577$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.91 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 22c | 934.03$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.75 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 21c | 627.5$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.77 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 20c | 551.58$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.75 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 9c | 413.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 458 | 41%188 W · 270 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21f…adddbacked Under | 80c | 247$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 13c | 236.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 11c | 216.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 492 | 28.9%142 W · 350 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Under | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 74c | 99.95$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 839 | 39.8%334 W · 505 L | -21.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 27c | 69.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -8.5wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x62e7…c1acbacked Under | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 73c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 202 | 41.6%84 W · 118 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f354backed Under | 75c | 25.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209d…f85ebacked Under | 77c | 19.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RCD Mallorca vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5this page
- RCD Mallorca vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- RCD Mallorca vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5Over won
- RCD Mallorca vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5Over won
- RCD Mallorca vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: RCD Mallorca (-1.5)RCD Mallorca won
- Spread: RCD Mallorca (-2.5)RCD Mallorca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.