La Liga · resolved market
RCD Mallorca vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x656b4a0124845dd4d28fa1bb44b98fc847e8c8211130301478f601950ec93f0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked Under | 36c | 2,789$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.01 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 18c | 1,585$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.24 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 64c | 1,509$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.72 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 40c | 1,100$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.27 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 69c | 614.75$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.61 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 28c | 591.51$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.85 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…e46cbacked Over | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 64c | 458.85$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.19 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd119…28abbacked Over | 72c | 409.67$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.71 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 64c | 397.83$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.22 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 35c | 381.45$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.37 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f64…1bcbbacked Over | 66c | 367.35$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 644 | 57%367 W · 277 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Over | 65c | 198.19$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 63c | 154.97$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2334…69b6backed Under | 22c | 150.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +105%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 64c | 103.96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +8.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 28c | 101$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 280 | 45.4%127 W · 153 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 73c | 99.73$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 387 | 48.1%186 W · 201 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 56c | 99.27$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 627 | 44.3%278 W · 349 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 46c | 89.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 30c | 86.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f9…2e72backed Under | 32c | 79.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…d2ebbacked Over | 70c | 70.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 64.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 65c | 61.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 596 | 55.4%330 W · 266 L | +31.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 29c | 56.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 46c | 49.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 46c | 42.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 283 | 57.2%162 W · 121 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 46c | 42.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 234 | 56.4%132 W · 102 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ff…35ccbacked Over | 71c | 41.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 71c | 40.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 403 | 57.1%230 W · 173 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 67c | 36.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 174 | 58.6%102 W · 72 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e64…6e0bbacked Over | 69c | 28.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8c…880abacked Over | 72c | 27.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 68c | 25.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 1,176 | 51.9%610 W · 566 L | +18.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 202 | 41.6%84 W · 118 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1956…1ef8backed Over | 72c | 20.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 180 | 62.2%112 W · 68 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd42…9588backed Over | 72c | 17.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7780…c0ddbacked Over | 68c | 16.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…b766backed Over | 72c | 16.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RCD Mallorca vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5this page
- RCD Mallorca vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- RCD Mallorca vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5Over won
- RCD Mallorca vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5Under won
- RCD Mallorca vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: RCD Mallorca (-1.5)RCD Mallorca won
- Spread: RCD Mallorca (-2.5)RCD Mallorca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.