Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7631cacc8074b4140496da9e4c5e48f25bdbdff4b6ab2f43795f9dcb69c0322b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 3c | 381.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 292.86$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.14 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 247.7$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 235.48$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 57c | 176.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.64 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 30c | 172.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 37c | 163.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 76c | 160.69$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.67 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 28c | 145$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 130$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 69c | 129.39$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 79c | 125.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 121.18$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 70c | 119.5$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.37 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 66c | 114.53$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 40c | 113.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.18 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 18c | 96.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 24c | 95.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 48c | 93.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 39c | 91.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 89.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 43c | 87.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 58c | 85.43$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 15c | 72.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 67c | 71.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 34c | 71.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 40c | 68.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 30c | 64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 20c | 61.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885b…4b09backed Yes | 69c | 61.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 22c | 59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 50c | 58.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 31c | 57.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 67c | 54.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 49c | 54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 31c | 53.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…0490backed Yes | 39c | 53.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 52.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 61c | 52.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 52.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 62c | 48.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 37c | 46.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 77c | 46.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 39c | 45.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 43c | 44.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 44.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 73c | 42.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 42.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 24c | 41.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 71c | 41.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 61c | 38.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 29c | 38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 41c | 37.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 39c | 36.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 67c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 52c | 34.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 72c | 34.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa94d…cdffbacked Yes | 79c | 33.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 44c | 33.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…64f4backed No | 52c | 32.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…1706backed Yes | 51c | 31.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9643…1874backed Yes | 47c | 31.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 58c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 78c | 30.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa6…49a1backed No | 46c | 29.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 75c | 29.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 72c | 26.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 46c | 25.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes | 64c | 23.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 68c | 23.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 64c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 45c | 22.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 67c | 22.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e2…86c6backed Yes | 52c | 20.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 56c | 20.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…7c22backed No | 50c | 19.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 56c | 19.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 19.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c7…3291backed Yes | 59c | 18.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.42per pick | 53cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…280bbacked No | 77c | 16.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecbd…0daebacked No | 75c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.