Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4310ddf27e064ca192000a8d7ffd4a5a4521b5cc1cf7e4033a7a6cb0bbcb310
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 16c | 764.18$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.48 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 8c | 347.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 21c | 242.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 41c | 202.55$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.07 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 194.49$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 7c | 168.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 158.7$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 153.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 151.49$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 29c | 149.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 60c | 142.49$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 138.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 15c | 119.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 40c | 105.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 43c | 90.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 89.55$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked No | 80c | 88.23$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 14c | 87.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…ff31backed Yes | 25c | 80.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 80c | 78.4$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 26c | 76.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 61c | 71.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 20c | 70.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 79c | 69.54$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 67.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8b…808ebacked Yes | 30c | 58.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 77c | 52.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd118…7bddbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 47.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 73c | 45.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…0490backed Yes | 29c | 44.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 41c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…e6dcbacked Yes | 23c | 42.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 75c | 41.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 65c | 40.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 39c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 72c | 36.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 60c | 33.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…9899backed Yes | 39c | 33.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked Yes | 33c | 32.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 80c | 32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 43c | 31.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…0408backed Yes | 31c | 31.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 36c | 31.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 34c | 30.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 46c | 28.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 58c | 25.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 60c | 23.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 80c | 19.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 80c | 18.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87de…c545backed No | 71c | 16.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…a787backed No | 77c | 16.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67c1…8205backed No | 67c | 15.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.