TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
T1of BNK FEARX, T1
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$736,540
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$789,525

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $736,540 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe015…6ffdbacked BNK FEARX12c96,413$11,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,557.6896048.8%468 W · 492 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76cf…9452backed BNK FEARX12c64,256$7,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,710.7310941.3%45 W · 64 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74a8…df59backed BNK FEARX10c27,849$2,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,784.8836034.4%124 W · 236 L-21.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-8.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed BNK FEARX13c25,267$3,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,284.7138235.6%136 W · 246 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked BNK FEARX12c25,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00090348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked BNK FEARX13c21,120$2,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,745.657246%263 W · 309 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed BNK FEARX7c21,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47059450.2%298 W · 296 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked BNK FEARX12c19,762$2,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,409.391,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae5e…13bebacked BNK FEARX13c16,962$2,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,208.9849541.6%206 W · 289 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed BNK FEARX5c13,740$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.461,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed BNK FEARX12c12,648$1,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,493.461,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b0b…6583backed BNK FEARX15c12,576$1,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,844.9712142.1%51 W · 70 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed BNK FEARX13c10,800$1,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4041,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f03…b1bebacked BNK FEARX12c10,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.991,13252.5%594 W · 538 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed BNK FEARX13c10,000$1,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254.991,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked BNK FEARX14c8,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12049940.7%203 W · 296 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked BNK FEARX12c6,752$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.152,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked BNK FEARX13c6,627$894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.398934.8%31 W · 58 L-10.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-30.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x44ba…5096backed BNK FEARX4c6,438$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.492630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-15.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked BNK FEARX11c5,858$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67075630%227 W · 529 L-21.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed BNK FEARX6c5,474$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.421,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked BNK FEARX11c5,463$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59020546.8%96 W · 109 L+16.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+36.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4dfc…1818backed BNK FEARX14c4,936$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.03520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35c8…ce5cbacked BNK FEARX12c4,251$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.6348844.3%216 W · 272 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3445…d229backed BNK FEARX4c3,733$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.645833.6%21 W · 562 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+178.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e53…bf9abacked BNK FEARX10c3,306$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.319636.5%35 W · 61 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae10…09e3backed BNK FEARX13c3,053$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.373826.3%10 W · 28 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-41.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed BNK FEARX12c3,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36049847.2%235 W · 263 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed BNK FEARX12c3,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.9915046%69 W · 81 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x835b…6f16backed BNK FEARX13c2,923$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3808827.3%24 W · 64 L-11.4wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-31.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked BNK FEARX6c2,751$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.0313333.8%45 W · 88 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ac7…8a43backed BNK FEARX6c2,750$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.518132.6%59 W · 122 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+50.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed BNK FEARX9c2,625$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.7526729.2%78 W · 189 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed BNK FEARX12c2,500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed BNK FEARX12c2,497$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.981,21839.9%486 W · 732 L-65.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0bcf…75c6backed BNK FEARX12c2,313$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.738929.2%26 W · 63 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-32%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf301…4ce1backed BNK FEARX13c2,308$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30021622.7%49 W · 167 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbe8…bb28backed BNK FEARX13c2,297$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.6711428.9%33 W · 81 L-9.2wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed BNK FEARX14c2,127$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.782,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked BNK FEARX12c2,018$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.861,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d72…02d0backed BNK FEARX12c2,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2406529.2%19 W · 46 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+29.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked BNK FEARX12c2,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24064749.9%323 W · 324 L-24.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed BNK FEARX1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205920%0 W · 592 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cef…fa91backed BNK FEARX12c2,000$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.745543.6%24 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52a6…ab62backed BNK FEARX14c1,801$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.213831.2%43 W · 95 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaa0…a9dfbacked BNK FEARX5c1,763$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63f5…09ddbacked BNK FEARX2c1,753$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.53258%2 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick8cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2952…97b0backed BNK FEARX12c1,731$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.3490%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac31…9ac0backed BNK FEARX6c1,700$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1023737.8%14 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+29.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed BNK FEARX12c1,677$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.582,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34a5…9450backed BNK FEARX13c1,538$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20017729.9%53 W · 124 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x254b…e8abbacked BNK FEARX13c1,449$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.44231%13 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a75…fc33backed BNK FEARX10c1,300$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13020151.2%103 W · 98 L+11.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed BNK FEARX12c1,265$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.831337.7%118 W · 195 L-15.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb835…2e51backed BNK FEARX15c1,183$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.147140.8%29 W · 42 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c04…03febacked BNK FEARX13c1,154$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503026.7%8 W · 22 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cb9…064fbacked BNK FEARX8c1,117$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick16cpaid+74.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed BNK FEARX12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcac4…d1acbacked BNK FEARX15c995.75$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.151910.5%2 W · 17 L-4.3wins-0.22per pick33cpaid-63%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed BNK FEARX13c987.52$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12756432.1%181 W · 383 L-2.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked T178c980.74$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.3694444.4%419 W · 525 L-31.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8f…870ebacked BNK FEARX13c979.58$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.597126.8%19 W · 52 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-28.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd02a…4771backed BNK FEARX13c961.54$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12519232.8%63 W · 129 L-17.2wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-23.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x782b…ff64backed BNK FEARX22c952.02$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.414242.9%18 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x24dc…25abbacked BNK FEARX15c909$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.354035%14 W · 26 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed BNK FEARX11c833.9$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.091,59343.8%697 W · 896 L-74.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed BNK FEARX12c833.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10039541.3%163 W · 232 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4440…959abacked BNK FEARX7c824$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.689142.9%39 W · 52 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26c6…1e14backed BNK FEARX13c756$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.2828350.2%142 W · 141 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfa40…9e37backed BNK FEARX15c720$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10810231.4%32 W · 70 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe623…9800backed BNK FEARX7c666.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014335%50 W · 93 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed BNK FEARX12c600$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7232542.2%137 W · 188 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed BNK FEARX14c550$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7738640.4%156 W · 230 L-17.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed BNK FEARX13c538.46$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701,11435%390 W · 724 L+14.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed BNK FEARX14c530.71$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.313130.5%40 W · 91 L-13.9wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x78fa…d5c3backed BNK FEARX13c530.08$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9111443%49 W · 65 L+9.1wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked BNK FEARX11c520.78$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.921,89937.1%705 W · 1,194 L-113.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed BNK FEARX19c501.77$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.2578043.1%336 W · 444 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb6…a2fcbacked BNK FEARX6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309835.7%35 W · 63 L-0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d1f…6465backed BNK FEARX14c500$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d00…0121backed BNK FEARX15c500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.17per pick56cpaid-43.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda14…1c2dbacked BNK FEARX3c491.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked BNK FEARX13c481.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4515748.4%76 W · 81 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…a754backed BNK FEARX12c425$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5135323.2%82 W · 271 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa493…7edbbacked BNK FEARX13c420.77$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.71216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+90.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked BNK FEARX16c420$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.24020%8 W · 32 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick12cpaid+48.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked BNK FEARX5c413$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2024326.7%65 W · 178 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked BNK FEARX16c400$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641487.4%11 W · 137 L+0.3wins0.00per pick7cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x581d…2b06backed BNK FEARX11c400$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4448035.4%170 W · 310 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked BNK FEARX22c385.16$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.931,92242.2%811 W · 1,111 L-45.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf709…7697backed BNK FEARX13c384.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506518.5%12 W · 53 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed BNK FEARX13c384.61$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0824650%123 W · 123 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05a9…0781backed BNK FEARX3c375$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b80…e5dfbacked BNK FEARX14c357.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010223.5%24 W · 78 L-13.3wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-39.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xc20c…fdb5backed BNK FEARX14c345.27$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.348847.7%42 W · 46 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed BNK FEARX7c343$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0186144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f1…b386backed BNK FEARX15c333.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc754…b388backed BNK FEARX13c307.69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402737%10 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e7e…f02cbacked BNK FEARX11c305.22$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.123426.5%9 W · 25 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-48.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2217…1660backed BNK FEARX11c303.66$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6312350.4%62 W · 61 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.