TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
T1of BNK FEARX, T1
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$806,046
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$875,206

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $806,046 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 447 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x52ec…a6f3backed BNK FEARX18c44,473$7,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,935.9281443.5%354 W · 460 L+30.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed BNK FEARX29c41,383$11,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,984.291,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked T171c38,246$27,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,024.0290348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40ea…832fbacked BNK FEARX28c35,695$9,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,992.5820339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b1…d224backed T178c33,942$26,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,535.9440851.7%211 W · 197 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b49…04a8backed T165c26,071$17,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,04939964.4%257 W · 142 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed T170c24,500$17,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,284.981,20354%650 W · 553 L+28.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked BNK FEARX2c16,240$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.811,50250.3%756 W · 746 L+71.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed BNK FEARX27c15,000$4,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,089.7492254%498 W · 424 L-1.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed BNK FEARX18c14,501$2,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,558.71,42838.4%548 W · 880 L-42.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed BNK FEARX17c11,906$1,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,993.511,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec92…6b59backed BNK FEARX1c11,111$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.1116511.5%19 W · 146 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+70.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed BNK FEARX29c10,001$2,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,902.5630845.1%139 W · 169 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed BNK FEARX1c10,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507889.8%77 W · 711 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed BNK FEARX44c9,999$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,399.5353750.5%271 W · 266 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b89…a4cdbacked T171c9,804$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,803.8771157%405 W · 306 L+40.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa980…30a1backed BNK FEARX3c9,798$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.9344120%88 W · 353 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed BNK FEARX9c9,662$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.6425243.7%110 W · 142 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed T177c8,316$6,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,886.875959.3%35 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed T178c8,141$6,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,825.191,15849.2%570 W · 588 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked T173c8,076$5,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,205.962,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked BNK FEARX39c8,000$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,119.9967250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50b1…861bbacked BNK FEARX29c7,950$2,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,333.9834448.8%168 W · 176 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9348…6664backed T165c7,789$5,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,743.8828959.2%171 W · 118 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35c8…ce5cbacked BNK FEARX27c7,247$1,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,940.3948944.4%217 W · 272 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked BNK FEARX30c7,000$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,079.991,30045.2%587 W · 713 L+50.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7a…aaaebacked BNK FEARX3c6,668$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20026151.7%135 W · 126 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed T178c6,410$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,410.2658457.7%337 W · 247 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcae6…4f85backed T176c6,343$4,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,496.8467276.9%517 W · 155 L+87.3wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+30.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x9560…9467backed BNK FEARX35c6,321$2,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,187.3320454.9%112 W · 92 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd001…f718backed BNK FEARX18c6,243$1,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,135.2519553.3%104 W · 91 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c93…2079backed T168c6,000$4,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,898.287156.3%40 W · 31 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked BNK FEARX45c6,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,699.9957546.3%266 W · 309 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed BNK FEARX4c5,555$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.235431.1%110 W · 244 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed T164c5,149$3,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,840.543,15933.8%1,068 W · 2,091 L-152.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed T165c5,136$3,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,790.952,23733.3%745 W · 1,492 L-71.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked BNK FEARX19c5,135$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.61,26737.7%478 W · 789 L+35.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed T172c5,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,40055056.7%312 W · 238 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked BNK FEARX28c5,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40030945.3%140 W · 169 L+1.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed BNK FEARX18c5,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001,01647%478 W · 538 L+21.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed T172c4,656$3,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,318.791,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed T172c4,554$3,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287.331,46961.4%902 W · 567 L-20.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked BNK FEARX21c4,215$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.941,14330.8%352 W · 791 L-9.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed BNK FEARX28c4,150$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16286136.2%312 W · 549 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked BNK FEARX42c4,106$1,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,724.546637.6%175 W · 291 L-19.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed BNK FEARX43c4,012$1,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,724.9590443.6%394 W · 510 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed BNK FEARX28c4,000$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.2764455.6%358 W · 286 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e3a…130ebacked BNK FEARX3c4,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12021623.6%51 W · 165 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed BNK FEARX22c4,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.998334.9%29 W · 54 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed BNK FEARX11c3,554$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.452750.5%266 W · 261 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21b5…1db6backed T170c3,541$2,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067.123764.9%24 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked T171c3,459$2,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.931,21954.5%664 W · 555 L+52.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed T171c3,446$2,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.341,00554%543 W · 462 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6204…0b06backed BNK FEARX32c3,395$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,075.1132440.4%131 W · 193 L+11.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed BNK FEARX22c3,332$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.0548157.6%277 W · 204 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed BNK FEARX32c3,251$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.911,32753.3%707 W · 620 L+37.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf301…4ce1backed BNK FEARX16c3,250$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.4421622.7%49 W · 167 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked BNK FEARX4c3,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10567552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfd…b845backed T172c3,000$2,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.0412052.5%63 W · 57 L-12.6wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-20%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed T172c3,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8401,44157.4%827 W · 614 L+35.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb08…b630backed BNK FEARX10c3,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31017032.9%56 W · 114 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked BNK FEARX25c3,000$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.8964849.8%323 W · 325 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7ee…fe5dbacked BNK FEARX34c2,966$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00035353.5%189 W · 164 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x581f…9d8ebacked BNK FEARX34c2,941$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00017343.4%75 W · 98 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x71f5…1aecbacked BNK FEARX40c2,930$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,164.9721828.4%62 W · 156 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+0.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed T170c2,857$1,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.461,31055.8%731 W · 579 L+43.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed BNK FEARX13c2,750$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.9994237.3%351 W · 591 L+51.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed T177c2,608$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.5516258%94 W · 68 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaea5…6163backed T163c2,595$1,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.1145366%299 W · 154 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked T162c2,211$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.661,06154.7%580 W · 481 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked T159c2,120$1,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.1895541.7%398 W · 557 L-31.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb97b…87dcbacked BNK FEARX1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014654.8%80 W · 66 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed BNK FEARX1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205920%0 W · 592 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb22a…a80dbacked T168c1,900$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.957157.7%41 W · 30 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe80e…a4c5backed BNK FEARX15c1,875$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.3718442.4%78 W · 106 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe49d…c3dbbacked BNK FEARX23c1,868$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.6463547.9%304 W · 331 L-16.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed T162c1,855$1,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.5576642%322 W · 444 L-23.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37bd…2a26backed T172c1,850$1,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51864553.3%344 W · 301 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ced…0feebacked T170c1,813$1,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.8677654.8%425 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6373…a0b7backed BNK FEARX38c1,691$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.579621.9%21 W · 75 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed BNK FEARX30c1,642$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.686144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd458…1c90backed BNK FEARX48c1,625$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7803056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f4b…0b44backed T173c1,576$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.0142455%233 W · 191 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x660c…7f7abacked T170c1,560$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.3818057.2%103 W · 77 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa57d…701fbacked T160c1,558$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.2912446%57 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed BNK FEARX29c1,500$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4351,15355.9%645 W · 508 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cc0…6139backed BNK FEARX32c1,500$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48035546.8%166 W · 189 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc177…7fbbbacked BNK FEARX8c1,460$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.816429.9%49 W · 115 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee80…f34ebacked T170c1,454$1,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.4735159.5%209 W · 142 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f4…7343backed T180c1,438$1,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.6411865.3%77 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked T175c1,412$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.251,93942.2%819 W · 1,120 L-46.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a0d…92e9backed T170c1,351$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.55660.7%34 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33f3…d80abacked BNK FEARX1c1,311$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.11598.5%5 W · 54 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-42.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3621…3c9fbacked T175c1,266$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.246753.7%36 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x009b…26dabacked BNK FEARX28c1,200$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33611833.1%39 W · 79 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ac7…8a43backed T161c1,200$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47018132.6%59 W · 122 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+50.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5c8…5e53backed T171c1,179$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.3725074.8%187 W · 63 L+42.0wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+24.6%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xd766…24e6backed T172c1,112$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.127256.9%41 W · 31 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a79…e2afbacked BNK FEARX4c1,100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-46.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x824b…8386backed T175c1,070$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.8717457.5%100 W · 74 L-9.1wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.