TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
T1of BNK FEARX, T1
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,070,868
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,190,457

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,070,868 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 575 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe015…6ffdbacked BNK FEARX19c54,850$10,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,327.8696048.8%468 W · 492 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed BNK FEARX20c44,863$8,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,859.681,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b1…d224backed T179c43,943$34,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,053.4740651.7%210 W · 196 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec92…6b59backed BNK FEARX2c39,114$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.0416511.5%19 W · 146 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+70.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5286…0d47backed BNK FEARX30c28,000$8,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,431.5227637.3%103 W · 173 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed BNK FEARX16c27,775$4,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,443.9951146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49cf…1cdebacked T176c20,232$15,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,936.532552%13 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72d8…5213backed T178c19,418$15,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,271.9862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed BNK FEARX19c18,865$3,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,672.689347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe80e…a4c5backed BNK FEARX21c16,383$3,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,459.1118442.4%78 W · 106 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa57d…701fbacked T176c15,779$12,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,734.9912446%57 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked T166c14,614$9,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,981.3467760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed BNK FEARX23c14,501$3,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,268.6381143.5%353 W · 458 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed BNK FEARX35c11,554$4,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,043.8853750.5%271 W · 266 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6373…a0b7backed BNK FEARX54c11,513$6,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,159.519621.9%21 W · 75 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked BNK FEARX23c10,854$2,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,526.72,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed BNK FEARX20c10,187$2,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,037.371,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed BNK FEARX52c10,000$5,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,227.0391854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked T146c10,000$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,399.9767552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed BNK FEARX16c10,000$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,549.9930845.1%139 W · 169 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50b1…861bbacked BNK FEARX35c10,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,499.9733949%166 W · 173 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b89…a4cdbacked T164c9,286$5,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,347.9671057%405 W · 305 L+41.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed BNK FEARX21c8,729$1,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,817.7122640.7%92 W · 134 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed BNK FEARX23c8,264$1,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,928.1776142%320 W · 441 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a7f…7603backed BNK FEARX22c7,850$1,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7272433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed BNK FEARX22c6,409$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.771,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked BNK FEARX24c5,931$1,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,430.0595041.6%395 W · 555 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked T180c5,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00044550.1%223 W · 222 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked BNK FEARX18c5,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.9930945.3%140 W · 169 L+1.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed T176c4,966$3,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,211.2960354.7%330 W · 273 L-2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked T179c4,910$3,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.11,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed BNK FEARX62c4,882$3,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,026.835959.3%35 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9348…6664backed T177c4,679$3,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,061.2228859%170 W · 118 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb589…91e3backed BNK FEARX15c4,535$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.251348%246 W · 267 L+25.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked T163c4,347$2,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,608.2690348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked BNK FEARX30c4,295$1,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,277.731,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9560…9467backed BNK FEARX16c4,000$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64820454.9%112 W · 92 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6204…0b06backed BNK FEARX27c4,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.9932440.4%131 W · 193 L+11.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked BNK FEARX22c3,940$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.81,50154.5%818 W · 683 L+34.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked BNK FEARX22c3,750$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.232,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc45a…1565backed BNK FEARX24c3,700$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.869046.7%42 W · 48 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked BNK FEARX17c3,600$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60075630%227 W · 529 L-21.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ced…0feebacked T179c3,273$2,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.2776955%423 W · 346 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e53…bf9abacked BNK FEARX14c3,268$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.519636.5%35 W · 61 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked BNK FEARX17c3,251$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.9433251.5%171 W · 161 L+33.0wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+17.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed BNK FEARX20c3,185$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.658334.9%29 W · 54 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed T176c3,074$2,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.123,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f03…b1bebacked BNK FEARX22c3,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6601,13252.5%594 W · 538 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae5e…13bebacked BNK FEARX22c3,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.9949541.6%206 W · 289 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed BNK FEARX21c3,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.9815046%69 W · 81 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb97b…87dcbacked BNK FEARX27c2,800$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.3214654.8%80 W · 66 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked BNK FEARX15c2,773$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4167733.8%26 W · 51 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-5.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed BNK FEARX19c2,757$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.8385836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed BNK FEARX28c2,753$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.2138439.8%153 W · 231 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed T136c2,681$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,705.0219041.1%78 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd458…1c90backed BNK FEARX19c2,654$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.283056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed BNK FEARX22c2,604$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.852,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb941…b56bbacked T177c2,565$1,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.431646.5%147 W · 169 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed T178c2,553$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.9116258%94 W · 68 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked BNK FEARX20c2,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50013333.8%45 W · 88 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed BNK FEARX10c2,346$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.211,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked BNK FEARX37c2,314$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.820348.8%99 W · 104 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ba8…d72bbacked T177c2,268$1,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.5617659.7%105 W · 71 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed BNK FEARX18c2,250$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4051,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x488e…ea2ebacked BNK FEARX19c2,247$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.6317644.3%78 W · 98 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked BNK FEARX36c2,185$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.681,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71f5…1aecbacked BNK FEARX20c2,154$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.0321828.4%62 W · 156 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+0.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked T179c2,134$1,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.4830357.1%173 W · 130 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked T179c2,109$1,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.741,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked T177c2,083$1,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.071,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c92…04f7backed T158c2,075$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.242661.5%16 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc542…beffbacked BNK FEARX55c2,070$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,128.486563.1%41 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed BNK FEARX21c2,059$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.358342.2%35 W · 48 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b5a…1457backed BNK FEARX20c2,054$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.8436643.7%160 W · 206 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed T162c2,026$1,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.771,24242.6%529 W · 713 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf06…c9ffbacked BNK FEARX7c2,019$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.3663352%329 W · 304 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked BNK FEARX27c2,002$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.361,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee7c…70f2backed T138c2,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,24048533.6%163 W · 322 L+23.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked BNK FEARX25c2,000$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.172,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed BNK FEARX1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205920%0 W · 592 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed BNK FEARX22c1,917$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.172,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74fc…a0bdbacked T167c1,865$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.4215457.8%89 W · 65 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked BNK FEARX42c1,857$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.5446637.6%175 W · 291 L-19.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed BNK FEARX59c1,750$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,032.4937754.1%204 W · 173 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed BNK FEARX19c1,738$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.551,54354.8%845 W · 698 L+75.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x951f…e430backed T162c1,721$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.2421946.6%102 W · 117 L+1.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf509…67b9backed T171c1,700$1,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4997869.2%54 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed BNK FEARX11c1,698$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.781,00747.9%482 W · 525 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x660c…7f7abacked T168c1,669$1,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.0417957.5%103 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f25…51f3backed T177c1,656$1,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.4115357.5%88 W · 65 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed BNK FEARX38c1,562$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60045248%217 W · 235 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32bb…8addbacked T173c1,559$1,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.357357.5%42 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed BNK FEARX22c1,558$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.7589943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6bb…c0aabacked T179c1,537$1,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.7333058.5%193 W · 137 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcb8…6b51backed BNK FEARX26c1,509$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.9313553.3%72 W · 63 L+8.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa980…30a1backed BNK FEARX5c1,508$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4844120%88 W · 353 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f4b…0b44backed T177c1,503$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.7842455%233 W · 191 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cc0…6139backed BNK FEARX45c1,500$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68035346.7%165 W · 188 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaea5…6163backed T175c1,491$1,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.8145366%299 W · 154 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked BNK FEARX28c1,485$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.6596057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.