Music · resolved market
Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76667a63609059f4a740837674708c7ca5df2e3efa7d1ebf2b18f387508acca4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 74c | 1,688$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.22 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 38c | 476$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.17 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 30c | 318.02$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 33c | 317$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.43 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 56c | 311.04$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 300$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 11c | 260$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.4 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 19c | 258.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…422abacked No | 15c | 248.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.55 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 29cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes | 23c | 230.25$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +213.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 169.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.6 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 34c | 146.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.58 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 48c | 135.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbda5…ee3abacked Yes | 14c | 120.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 50c | 119.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.53 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…648cbacked Yes | 73c | 108.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb93f…9a79backed Yes | 70c | 103$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 102.56$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed No | 25c | 89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +257.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 29c | 88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.77 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 30c | 85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582f…9cd5backed Yes | 71c | 80$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 75.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 25c | 54.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b3…c0e3backed No | 37c | 53.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +168.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5705…4652backed Yes | 74c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96c5…2e29backed No | 56c | 19.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of August 8?this page
- Will "Charli xcx - Music, Fashion, Film" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of August 8?No won
- Will "I'm The Problem - Morgan Wallen" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of August 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.