Music · resolved market
Will "I'm The Problem - Morgan Wallen" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e553bd42da264786d509bb4f7cf3a939f2fb05bae0de243cfb63a91b7f27e14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cfd…eb36backed Yes | 20c | 2,148$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,715.79 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 48c | 593.08$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.91 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 31c | 443$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.91 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 347.28$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 17c | 330.94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 20c | 212.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 69c | 205$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.75 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 169.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.34 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 11c | 161.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb93f…9a79backed No | 76c | 152.62$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb082…5138backed No | 80c | 150$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 133.11$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.38 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 128$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.67 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8a…f6a4backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda5…ee3abacked No | 47c | 97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 79c | 88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.81 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 21c | 82.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 24c | 78.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.93 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 37c | 66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 58c | 66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 65.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 58.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5a…f0e0backed Yes | 20c | 53.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked No | 76c | 52.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +141.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 34c | 49.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 65c | 49.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 69cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf265…3e9dbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 74c | 32.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 68c | 31.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 76cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 75c | 21.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb598…14fcbacked No | 69c | 21.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "I'm The Problem - Morgan Wallen" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of August 8?this page
- Will "Charli xcx - Music, Fashion, Film" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of August 8?No won
- Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.