Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2026-08-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7667362ed8abd330037f87a86e75ae580ea6fe4c00942d11fcbb8a1f7fc65621
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Yes | 22c | 38,984$8,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,555.37 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 79c | 21,808$17,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,648.15 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x753d…2ce0backed Yes | 24c | 12,514$2,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,961 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe23c…5ae7backed Yes | 19c | 9,489$1,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,842.14 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 29c | 7,114$2,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,053.79 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…c93abacked Yes | 25c | 5,640$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,407.8 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +352.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 28c | 4,381$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.74 | 460 | 44.3%204 W · 256 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9618…77e6backed Yes | 24c | 2,907$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.99 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +215.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 27c | 2,900$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.49 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 28c | 2,900$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812 | 582 | 29.2%170 W · 412 L | -19.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 2,672$2,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.9 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…6633backed No | 75c | 2,400$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb42…0ad9backed Yes | 25c | 2,325$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.42 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 26c | 1,750$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.38 | 877 | 45.2%396 W · 481 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 76c | 1,387$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.22 | 638 | 49.5%316 W · 322 L | +26.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Yes | 31c | 1,210$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.02 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +165.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 887.55$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.93 | 715 | 33.8%242 W · 473 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 21c | 839.95$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.17 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed No | 70c | 836.2$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.52 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 26c | 738.02$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.77 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 74c | 436.68$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.6 | 381 | 47.5%181 W · 200 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 19c | 395.8$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.43 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Yes | 25c | 320.51$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…19ebbacked Yes | 17c | 300$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +87%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Yes | 17c | 290.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…53d2backed Yes | 22c | 260$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f1…9a0dbacked Yes | 23c | 206.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 9c | 202.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 338 | 53.3%180 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 78c | 167.9$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 237 | 43.9%104 W · 133 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 25c | 148.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 188 | 48.4%91 W · 97 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 21c | 125.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed No | 79c | 114$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…934abacked Yes | 31c | 111$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…0ab1backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Yes | 24c | 95.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Yes | 26c | 93.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 75c | 69.32$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 351 | 63.5%223 W · 128 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe530…ed7bbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 23c | 68.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 77c | 66.65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 559 | 54.9%307 W · 252 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 78c | 66.26$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 297 | 54.5%162 W · 135 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed No | 76c | 62.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 76 | 71.1%54 W · 22 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed No | 78c | 62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 244 | 66%161 W · 83 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 78c | 61.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 322 | 57.8%186 W · 136 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 40c | 57.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 986 | 53.2%525 W · 461 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Yes | 29c | 54.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 218 | 54.1%118 W · 100 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0a…e482backed No | 41c | 47.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x772c…4d6cbacked Yes | 28c | 47.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 74c | 43.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 852 | 50.4%429 W · 423 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Yes | 26c | 41.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 145 | 61.4%89 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…521bbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 99 | 68.7%68 W · 31 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…53dfbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8558…8615backed No | 44c | 24.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed No | 78c | 24.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 79c | 21.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…a242backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea88…261abacked No | 77c | 19.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x713d…15d0backed No | 79c | 16.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e1…6935backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 192 | 65.1%125 W · 67 L | +13.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa115…d13dbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2026-08-15?this page
- Will FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora end in a draw?Yes won
- Will FC Alverca win on 2026-08-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.