Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88e6993878dabd3ff4dc75a2353fd0a24f13bfc5c28d301902bf85110f863f47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 10c | 4,150$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.98 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Yes | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.98 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 43c | 2,324$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.65 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 7c | 897.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 715 | 33.8%242 W · 473 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 29c | 885.14$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.45 | 460 | 44.3%204 W · 256 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 57c | 826.5$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.31 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 60c | 696.75$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.05 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 71c | 659.83$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.15 | 773 | 50.2%388 W · 385 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Yes | 64c | 458.91$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.21 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 71c | 391.84$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.2 | 852 | 50.4%429 W · 423 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Yes | 25c | 295.5$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.87 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…53d2backed Yes | 41c | 260$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.49 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Yes | 20c | 253.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.31 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked No | 7c | 230$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked No | 77c | 219$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.63 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +7.0wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 77c | 184.22$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.3 | 877 | 45.2%396 W · 481 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 27c | 176.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 30c | 149.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 269 | 49.8%134 W · 135 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 80c | 110$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.65 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f1…9a0dbacked Yes | 40c | 109.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Yes | 70c | 105.71$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 57c | 95.81$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 323 | 50.2%162 W · 161 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 68c | 89.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 986 | 53.2%525 W · 461 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…fe4abacked No | 70c | 77.73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 30c | 76.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 734 | 40.1%294 W · 440 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9661…36f6backed Yes | 23c | 71.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.43 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 53c | 71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 338 | 53.3%180 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…6163backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a00…4322backed Yes | 56c | 63.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…934abacked Yes | 53c | 59.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 60c | 56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 297 | 54.5%162 W · 135 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 48c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 75 | 77.3%58 W · 17 L | +12.7wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed No | 60c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 244 | 66%161 W · 83 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed No | 60c | 30.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 76 | 71.1%54 W · 22 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e0…4983backed Yes | 62c | 25.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Yes | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 90 | 64.4%58 W · 32 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 70c | 22.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 638 | 49.5%316 W · 322 L | +26.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed No | 57c | 22.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 60c | 17.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 322 | 57.8%186 W · 136 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 60c | 17.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 559 | 54.9%307 W · 252 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 192 | 65.1%125 W · 67 L | +13.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora end in a draw?this page
- Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2026-08-15?No won
- Will FC Alverca win on 2026-08-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.