NFL · resolved market
Spread: TEN (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x767dfda16fd581cff3db60b17525775f9e6f83ade17ce3de83ec13cd724d48ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TENof TEN, SEA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed TEN | 42c | 7,315$3,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,213.91 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked SEA | 57c | 6,045$3,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,452.63 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked SEA | 60c | 443$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.8 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed SEA | 54c | 298.87$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.6 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked TEN | 58c | 241.07$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.37 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked SEA | 65c | 228.32$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.41 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked SEA | 68c | 208.83$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.85 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked SEA | 60c | 162$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed TEN | 33c | 146.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.7 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed TEN | 36c | 108$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked SEA | 42c | 107$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed SEA | 45c | 91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed TEN | 51c | 74.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed SEA | 49c | 74.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed SEA | 57c | 70.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked SEA | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1821…26a0backed TEN | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed SEA | 57c | 35.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked SEA | 57c | 31.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: TEN (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Titans (-2.5)Seahawks won
- SEA vs. TEN: O/U 37.5Under won
- SEA vs. TEN: O/U 38.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. TitansTitans won
- Seahawks vs. Titans: 1H MoneylineSeahawks won
- Spread: TEN (-2.5)TEN won
- Spread: TEN (-3.5)SEA won
- Spread: TEN (-4.5)SEA won
- Spread: TEN (-5.5)SEA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.